Storms To Start....

Radar is indicating a few showers and thunderstorms across the area this morning.  This is associated with the pesky frontal boundary that has been affecting the region over the past few days.

GRLevel 2 Base Reflectivity at 9:26 AM EDT

Showers and thunderstorms will be possible through the day with the aforementioned boundary.  Highs will be in the mid to upper 80s.  Tomorrow expect a drier day with only a slight chance of a storm in the higher terrain.  Highs will be in the lower 90s.  Thursday expect a increased chances of showers and thunderstorms with approaching cold front and upper level trough.  Friday expect frontal boundary to move through the region giving way to showers and thunderstorms with highs in the mid to upper 80s.  This system is forecast to be one of the stronger upper level systems we have seen in quiet some time.  This system could cause some severe weather and I will be monitoring the possibilities across the area over the next few days.

SimuAWIPS NAM:left/GFS:right Comparison for Friday at 18Z/2 PM EDT

This high amplitude system will carve out the summer temperatures for the weekend with highs in the lower to mid 80s.

Showers And Thunderstorms....

Showers and thunderstorms will be likely today with upper level trough continuing to move east. The trough axis will be parked over the upper Mississippi River Valley.

SimuAWIPS 500mb heights/wind

This will give the area chances of storms through Monday with highs in the upper to lower 90s. Some of these storms could be strong with high winds and small hail the main threat. I think wind will be the big issue especially late Sunday with possible squall line.

SPC Day 2 Convective Outlook for 8AM Sunday to 8AM Monday

Hopefully back to more isolated activity on Tuesday with highs in the lower 90s.

Showers And Storms Likely....

Starting off the morning in the mid to upper 70s across most areas with the usual cool spot in the Tri-cities where temperatures are in the upper 60s. Areas are seeing cloud cover with approaching upper level trough. This will give us a likely chance of showers and thunderstorms. The timing is not in sync with the NAM and RAP models, but based on location of precipitation and better verification with RAP will go with around lunch time.

SimuAWIPS Base Reflectivity at 8:45 AM EDT

Highs today should be in the mid to upper 80s depending on cloud cover and precipitation. Tomorrow expect good chance of storms with highs in the mid to upper 80s. Sunday much the same with chances of storms and highs in the mid to upper 80s. Looking at the long range does look like could have precipitation chances continuing for Monday, and possibly some clearing by Wednesday high temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s.

Early Storms....

Showers and thunderstorms have started off your day in parts of the area. Heaviest area of showers and thunderstorms remained in the Southern Valley with some more scattered activity for the Central Valley. Northeast Tennessee remains mostly dry this morning as expected. Temperatures are in the upper 60s to lower 70s across most areas this morning.

GRLevel 2 Base Reflectivity at 8:23 AM EDT

Rest of today will be clearing out with slight chances of afternoon storms highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Tomorrow expect slight chances of storms mainly on the higher terrain with highs in the lower 90s. Warm day for Thursday with storms chances increasing slightly still mainly higher terrain activity with highs in the lower to mid 90s. Increase chances of precipitation for Friday through the weekend with highs in the lower 90s.

Update....

After looking at the model data that came out this morning it does look like the MCS will begin moving into the area in the early morning hours between 2 AM and 5 AM EDT.  The same holds true as it did in my forecast this morning the best chances will be in the Southern Valley near Chattanooga with less chances in Northeast Tennessee toward Johnson City.  The Storm Prediction Center has also nudged slight risk south with far Southern Valley including Chattanooga still in the risk area.  I will continue to monitor as system develops.

Chances Of Storms On The Increase....

Most locations are in the upper 60s to lower 70s this morning  with a little bit of cloud cover in some locations.  The trough that has been affecting the weather over the past week will continue to be the dominate feature across the Eastern US.  Today I expect mostly dry day with some chances of storms across the higher terrain and Northeast Tennessee.  High temperatures will be in the lower 90s.  Overnight and tomorrow increase chances of showers and thunderstorms will be possible with MCS moving close to the region.  Best chances of storms look to be in Southern Valley with lower chances across Northeast Tennessee.  Models do have a hard time with these types of systems, so I will have to monitor for changes.  This has prompted a slight risk for severe storms for tomorrow across the area.

Day 2 Convective Outlook for 07/31/12 at 8 AM EDT to 08/01/12 at 8 AM EDT

For your Wednesday expect chances of storms mainly on the higher terrain.  Highs for the week should stay in the lower 90s.