Update....

After looking at the model data that came out this morning it does look like the MCS will begin moving into the area in the early morning hours between 2 AM and 5 AM EDT.  The same holds true as it did in my forecast this morning the best chances will be in the Southern Valley near Chattanooga with less chances in Northeast Tennessee toward Johnson City.  The Storm Prediction Center has also nudged slight risk south with far Southern Valley including Chattanooga still in the risk area.  I will continue to monitor as system develops.

Thunderstorms With Some Strong....

Most areas starting off in the mid to upper 70s with the cool spot being the Tri-Cities in the lower 70s.  The story today is we are monitoring a thunderstorm complex that has setup over the Ohio Valley this morning.

SimuAWIPS Radar 8:45 AM/Fronts 6:40 AM

This complex has the capability of producing damaging winds and heavy rain.  Currently the timing of this complex is at question with RAP model indicating later this afternoon and NAM model later tonight.

SimuAWIPS Left RAP at 6 PM and Right NAM at 11 PM

Models due conflict with these complexes sometimes and will need to see next run of the NAM coming out by early afternoon. Currently going to go with the RAP and expect showers and thunderstorms complex to come in later this afternoon.  It does look like storms are forming south so we could some storms earlier ahead of complex.

SimuAWIPS Radar at 9:05 AM

This system has prompted a Slight risk across the area with damaging winds being the main threat.

SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook

Tomorrow expect chances of afternoon thunderstorms with highs in the mid 90s.  Another warm day on tap for Thursday with highs in the mid to upper 90s.  It will be hot and sticky as dewpoints will be in the lower 70s.  Friday another good chance of storms as frontal boundary approaches the area.  Temperatures for the weekend make it back into the upper 80s to lower 90s.

Showers And Thunderstorms Possible....

A warm day is on tap with showers and thunderstorms possible as we go into the afternoon.  It is likely that most of the storms will form in the higher terrain, but Valley areas will also see pop up storms.  Some showers have already developed across the Southern Valley and Plateau.

GRLevel 2 Base Reflectivity at 11:07 AM EDT

I expect temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s.  It does look like the trend of afternoon thunderstorms and temperatures generally in the upper 80s to lower 90s will continue most of this coming week.  This will be due to trough and ridge transitions throughout the week, as ridge moves in from the east then recedes by the end of the week to a trough.

Changing Pattern....

Hope everyone had a safe and fun weekend.  Surface analysis this morning is indicating the frontal boundary that has been to the north has moved south almost into far North Kentucky.  This will become the main weather player going into the work week.  Today expect chances of showers and thunderstorms to be on the increase with highs in the lower to mid 90s.  Shower and thunderstorm chances increase greatly going into Monday and Tuesday with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s.  There will be chances of showers and thunderstorms through the week as the frontal boundary is forecasted to slow meander south.

Remember for the latest updates and advisory information for East Tennessee follow me on Twitter or ETweather Facebook page.

All Of East TN Under A Severe Thunderstorms Watch....

We have been tracking a System all day that is making it's way south in East Tennessee.  For more information and the latest watches and warnings please follow us on Twitter and Facebook.

Greater Chances Of Showers And Thunderstorms....

Forecast Discussion:

Well folks a busy and changing forecast has presented itself this morning.  I do expect a increase chance of showers and thunderstorms today with a approaching upper level disturbance that is producing a MCS across the Ohio Valley this morning.  The air mass across the area if forecasted to be moist and unstable.  This will give way to chances for damaging winds, heavy rain and hail.  This has prompted the Storm Prediction Center to put all of East Tennessee under a slight risk for Severe Storms.  If you have outdoor plans this afternoon please keep a eye to the sky as conditions could change rapidly.  Also be sure to follow us on Twitter or Facebook for updated warnings.  Highs today will be in the lower to mid 90s.

SPC Slight Risk is the area inside the green line updated at 8:40 AM EDT

Now moving forward into Friday and Saturday where the story will be the return of the heat with highs expected to be in the upper 90s with 100s possible is some spots.  These high temperatures coupled with the moist air mass will lead to high heat indices.  There will also be chances of showers and thunderstorms mainly in the higher terrain.  If you have plans for the weekend make sure you drink plenty of water and limit time outdoors.

Twister Data NAM 12Z/8AM forecast for surface temperatures for Saturday at 2 PM EDT

Then going into Sunday through Tuesday we have increase chances for rain with a frontal boundary proged to move south into the Tennessee Valley.  The exact timing of this system is still a little uncertain as models have been some what different.  GFS MOS data does indicate that temperatures will drop into the 80s with some much needed rain occurring across the area.  I will keep you updated on this as forecast becomes clearer on timing.

HPC forecasted Precipitation from Sunday at 8AM to Tuesday at 8AM

More Storms Continue To Fire....

Upper Level disturbance moving across the area has fired off multiple showers and thunderstorms. Just a little relief.

Still Storms Lingering Across The Area....

There are still some storms lingering across the area with a severe thunderstorm warning in SW Sevier and SE Blount.

GRLevel 2 Base Reflectivity 10:36 PM EDT

Storms Across The Area....

There are a couple of storms that have developed across the area.  One has prompted a severe thunderstorm warning across parts of Morgan, Anderson, and Roane County.

GRLevel 2 Base Reflectivity at 6:05 PM EDT

Not As Cool

Well folks the temperatures this morning not quite as cool as expected with most areas staying the lower to mid 50s. This was due to some cloud cover across much of the area through the night. We might get cooler tonight with clear skies and lows expected to reach the mid 40s. Wonderful day for Thursday with sunny skies and mid 70s and then back to some showers and thunderstorms for your Friday. This same system will produce some severe weather in parts of the Midwest. Looks like clearing will come for the weekend with lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s and highs in the lower to mid 70s.

Long time no post....

Sorry for the long vacation if you will from the blog, but with school and work it was almost impossible to continue. Things have stabilized now, but could become busy as this school year gets underway.

Enough of that lets talk about the weather well for East Tennessee this week it has been a wet pattern due to a tropical low pressure system in the northern Louisiana area. This low pressure system will keep the chances for showers and thunderstorms in the forecast through most of the period. Looking at radar at this hour we have several scattered showers and thunderstorms across the area with the heaviest showers are over Monroe and Blount county. These showers and storms will continue to develop and move off to the NE. Keep in mind not everyone will see these showers, but some of you will see your fair share.

This rain has prompted some flooding in the middle and western parts of Tennessee where there are several counties under a flash flood watch.

Well many of you will be traveling to watch the Vols play against Florida on Saturday and well the moisture will be there in Gainesville as it has been across Tennessee with the National Weather Service calling for a 50% chance of showers and thunderstorms. These will mainly be during the afternoon so we will have to watch the radar as game time gets closer, so you might want to have your poncho handy in case there is some shower activity in The Swamp. Also expect some warm temperatures with highs in the in the upper 80s.