Another Hot One....

Staring off the morning with some fog across the higher terrain and Northeast Tennessee.  Temperatures across the region are generally in the upper 70s with the cool spot being the Tri-Cities in the lower 70s.

SimuAWIPS Visible Satellite/Surface Fronts  

Low chances of any storms today with highs in the mid to upper 90s across the region.  The main impact today will be the hot temperatures coupled with dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s.  This will allow heat indices in the 100s.  Showers and storms out ahead of impending cold front will be possible across the area in the early morning hours tomorrow.  The best chances of showers and thunderstorms will be tomorrow afternoon around 2 to 5 PM.

SimuAWIPS NAM 06Z Composite Radar for Friday 07/27/12 at 2 PM

Saturday afternoon cold front will finally pass through the area.  Some relief in temperatures expected with highs in the lower 90s.  Watching another complex of storms that develops across the upper plains early Saturday and is modeled to approach the region late Sunday.  The models sometimes have a hard time handling this, but the NAM model has been consistent in showing this system moving toward the region.

Isolated Storms....

Starting off the morning with some rain and storms across Northeast Tennessee.  The main area of rain has moved south with a few showers possibly moving into the area from Eastern Kentucky.

SimuAWIPS Radar at 8:55 AM

Most of East Tennessee is dry this morning but mild with temperatures in the upper 70s and the rain cooled spot Tri-Cities in the upper 60s. Expect a summer like setup today with storms firing up mainly across the higher terrain. Some of the storms could drift into the Valley with heavy rain being the main threat. The heat will also be a factor today with temperatures expected to get into the mid to upper 90s. These temperatures coupled with dewpoints in the lower 70 will make for high heat indices in the upper 90s to 100s. Make sure to take breaks when outside and drink plenty of fluids. Another similar day for Thursday with isolated storms possible and high in the mid to upper 90s. Again high heat indices possible as warm moist air moves north ahead of the cold front. Best chances of rain will be Friday with timing looking to be early afternoon right now. Clearing for the weekend with highs in the lower 90s.

Chances Of Showers And Thunderstorms Again....

Well folks I hope many of you have power restored, or will soon with some reports of power still out in some parts of the region.  Numerous reports of wind damage across the area as storms slowly moved through the East Tennessee yesterday.

NWS Local Storm Reports wind reports in blue and hail in green

This morning we started off with some fog across the region.  I do expect there to be more showers and thunderstorms today.  These will be triggered by another upper level disturbance that will swing through the area.  Another hot one today with highs in the mid to upper 90s.  Saturday expect shower and thunderstorm chances mainly in the higher terrain with highs in the mid to upper 90s.  The big story here will be the high heat indices, so drink plenty of water and limit time outdoors.

The next big story will be the major change in the pattern across the Eastern US.  This will begin changing Sunday with highs expected to be in the upper 80s to lower 90s as a trough begins to setup over the Eastern US.  This also means chances of precipitation will increase early this next week as a frontal boundary begins to move south slowly across the area.  This will bring some much needed rain.  Also the temperatures will get back closer to normal for this time of year with highs in the mid to upper 80s depending on cloud cover.

HPC 48-HR Rainfall Totals for 8AM EDT Monday to 8AM EDT Wednesday

Chances Of Storms For Your 4th....

Well hope you are having a great holiday and thank you to our Military Veterans and Active Duty Military for your service.  Another day with the same problems a chance of afternoon thunderstorms and highs in the mid to upper 90s.  I do expect this to be much the same with showers and thunderstorms initiating in the higher terrain and drifting into the Valley.  The heat will begin cranking back up as we go into the rest of your work week into the weekend as upper level ridge moves slightly east again.  The trend for the end of the weekend into early next week is still on with ridge receding west allowing for cooler temperatures and better chances of precipitation.  Remember to follow me on Twitter or Facebook for the latest weather statements and weather information.

Fireworks Safety Tips:

• Obey local ordinances regulating the sale and use of fireworks.
• Use fireworks in a safe area away from dry fields, forests and buildings.
• Carefully follow label directions and always have adult supervision.
• Light one firework at a time and handle lighters safely.
• Never point or throw fireworks at people or animals.
• Keep water and garden tools nearby. Wet towels can be used to extinguish small flames.
• After the celebration ends, observe the area where fireworks were used to make sure everything is safe before leaving.

For More information visit www.burnsafetn.org

Shower and Thunderstorm Chances Continue....

Forecast Discussion:

The shower and thunderstorms chances continue today with best chances across the higher terrain and then drifting into some of the Valley locations.  I expect highs to be in the lower to mid 90s.  I do expect the trend of afternoon thunderstorms to exist through this week into the weekend.  It does look like temperatures will increase into the upper 90s this weekend as the ridge moves east again into East Tennessee.  These higher temperatures coupled with dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s will make for a hot and sticky weekend.  Models have indicated a trough digging south into the area early next week which could lower the temperatures a bit and give way to better chances of showers and thunderstorms.  I will monitor to forecasts and hope for some changes to the heat.  Remember to stay safe for the 4th and watch out for showers and thunderstorms to develop with little warning.

NCEP 06Z GFS 500mb Heights and Vorticity Forecast for Saturday 7/7/2012 and Monday 7/9/2012 at 21Z/5 PM EDT

Some Relief....

Yesterday was another hot one with Knoxville and Chattanooga meeting the all time record high once again. Some relief came to the area last night in the form of showers and thunderstorms with 23 severe thunderstorms warnings issued across the region.  I hope you saw some rain with preliminary report out of Knoxville was 0.62 inches for the storm event.  I do expect the chances of afternoon showers and thunderstorms to be on the increase over the next several days as upper level disturbances move across the region.  Today will be another hot one with temperatures in the upper 90s to lower 100s.  Tuesday we begin to see the highs drop a bit with highs in the lower to mid 90s.

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Another Day of Records Possible....

Another day of records are expected today with highs getting into the lower 100s again.  I do expect showers and thunderstorms to increase as moisture returns to the region.  Most of the showers and storms will begin across the higher terrain.  Computer models do indicate that the area will begin to move back into the lower 90s going into this work week.  This will be nice compared to the 100+ highs we have been experiencing.  Stay cool out there and drink plenty of water.

Heat Advisory and Air Quality alert continues for most of East Tennessee today.

The Heat Continues....

Sorry for the lack of update this morning as it has been another busy weekend.  Hope all have stayed indoors today.  This marks another day in the 100s and this one was one for the record books.

Records For Today:

• Knoxville broke the record of 100 set back in 1952 with a high of 105 and this also broke the all-time record high of 104 set on July 12, 1930.
• Chattanooga broke the record of 103 set in 1952 with a high of 107 and this also broke the all-time record high of 106 set on July 28, 1952 and June 29, 2012.
• Tri-Cities broke the record of 95 set back in 1959 with a high of 103 and this also broke the all-time record high of 102 set on July 29, 1952 and June 29, 2012.

All the official recording stations in the area set all-time record highs today with the ridge firmly in place across the region.  This hot weather will be sticking around and the return of the moisture also.  The return of moisture also means the return of isolated thunderstorms mainly in the higher elevations.  Remember to take breaks and avoid the outdoors if possible.

Surpassed Expected High....

Well the upper 90s have been surpassed at Knoxville with the temperature at 4PM reading 100 degrees.  This is some oppressive heat with areas across the state coming in at 100 or above to include Nashville, Memphis, Chattanooga, Paris, Clarksville, and Oak Ridge.

Regional Temperatures at 4 PM EDT

The Heat Is On....

Well the temperature will begin to really heat up today as high pressure dominates the area.  I expect highs today in the mid to upper 90s for most locations.  I do expect this trend to continue with highs expected to get in the lower 100s for Friday and Saturday.  I do not expect any precipitation even into early next week with temperatures staying in the upper 90s.  Everyone that has plans outside this weekend should make sure you take frequent breaks, limit exposure to the sun, and drink plenty of water.


Heat Tips: 

• Take frequent breaks
• Drink plenty of water
• Limit time outdoors
• Keep pets indoors

Also for those who have problems breathing there is a Air Quality Alert for today code ORANGE for most of East Tennessee.

airnow.gov AQI Forecast for today

Heat Begins To Build In....

The heat will begin to build into the area today as high pressure dominates the surface. I expect clear skies and temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s.  The temperatures increase as we move into the weekend with parts of the region making it into the 100s.  This trend of 90s and 100s does not look to end anytime soon with long range models indicating zonal flow (meaning no troughs which help to produce precipitation and changes in temperature).  If you are going to be outside remember to drink plenty of water and limit time outside.

HPC Surface Analysis at 5:00 AM EDT

Heat Tips: 

• Take frequent breaks
• Drink plenty of water
• Limit time outdoors
• Keep pets indoors

Also for those who have problems breathing there is a Air Quality Alert for today code ORANGE for most of East Tennessee.

airnow.gov AQI Forecast for today 

Starting Over....

Today with temperatures in the lower to upper 80s for Knoxville and Tri-Cities they start there 90 or above count with Knoxville ending at 7 and Tri-Cities ending at 3.  The Chattanooga Site will make it to 7 today and I expect them to be 90 or above for a minimum of 5 more consecutive days.

Current Record Highs:

	Thursday	Friday	Saturday	Sunday
Knoxville	100/1952	101/1936	100/1952	100/1954
Chattanooga	104/1952	102/1936	103/1952	101/1954
Tri-Cities	96/1952	95/1952	95/1959	98/1959