Chances of storms on the increase for next week across East Tennessee

The drier conditions across East Tennessee continue today with surface high pressure in control. Today will be mostly sunny with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s..... Read more here http://exm.nr/SY5i8O

Stormy Day....

Showers and thunderstorms will mainly affect the Northern Plateau and Valley as well as Northeast Tennessee this morning.

SimuAWIPS Radar at 9:15

These storms are not severe and are left over from storms that affecting parts of Missouri.  I expect as the cold front continue to move east that we will see more showers and thunderstorms as the day goes on.  This has prompted a slight risk across the area with main threat being damaging wind and heavy rain with precipitable water values being on the 2 inch range this afternoon.

SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook for 9 AM today till 8 AM Monday

The area will see good chances of storms tonight through tomorrow as frontal boundary slowly moves through the area.  Highs should be in the mid to upper 80s with cloud cover and storms.  This weak front will not cool or clear out the moist and unstable air mass, so will keep a chance of showers and thunderstorms most of the week with a increase chance for Thursday.  Highs will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s.

Another Hot One....

Staring off the morning with some fog across the higher terrain and Northeast Tennessee.  Temperatures across the region are generally in the upper 70s with the cool spot being the Tri-Cities in the lower 70s.

SimuAWIPS Visible Satellite/Surface Fronts  

Low chances of any storms today with highs in the mid to upper 90s across the region.  The main impact today will be the hot temperatures coupled with dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s.  This will allow heat indices in the 100s.  Showers and storms out ahead of impending cold front will be possible across the area in the early morning hours tomorrow.  The best chances of showers and thunderstorms will be tomorrow afternoon around 2 to 5 PM.

SimuAWIPS NAM 06Z Composite Radar for Friday 07/27/12 at 2 PM

Saturday afternoon cold front will finally pass through the area.  Some relief in temperatures expected with highs in the lower 90s.  Watching another complex of storms that develops across the upper plains early Saturday and is modeled to approach the region late Sunday.  The models sometimes have a hard time handling this, but the NAM model has been consistent in showing this system moving toward the region.

Thunderstorms With Some Strong....

Most areas starting off in the mid to upper 70s with the cool spot being the Tri-Cities in the lower 70s.  The story today is we are monitoring a thunderstorm complex that has setup over the Ohio Valley this morning.

SimuAWIPS Radar 8:45 AM/Fronts 6:40 AM

This complex has the capability of producing damaging winds and heavy rain.  Currently the timing of this complex is at question with RAP model indicating later this afternoon and NAM model later tonight.

SimuAWIPS Left RAP at 6 PM and Right NAM at 11 PM

Models due conflict with these complexes sometimes and will need to see next run of the NAM coming out by early afternoon. Currently going to go with the RAP and expect showers and thunderstorms complex to come in later this afternoon.  It does look like storms are forming south so we could some storms earlier ahead of complex.

SimuAWIPS Radar at 9:05 AM

This system has prompted a Slight risk across the area with damaging winds being the main threat.

SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook

Tomorrow expect chances of afternoon thunderstorms with highs in the mid 90s.  Another warm day on tap for Thursday with highs in the mid to upper 90s.  It will be hot and sticky as dewpoints will be in the lower 70s.  Friday another good chance of storms as frontal boundary approaches the area.  Temperatures for the weekend make it back into the upper 80s to lower 90s.

Isolated Storms....

This morning we are starting off with partly to mostly cloudy skies with a few areas of fog.  Dominate feature is the upper level ridge aloft.

SimuAWIPS 500mb Height and Wind/Water Vapor Satellite

Today will be another day of possible storms mostly in the afternoon and higher terrain. Although hopefully it will be a bust like yesterday with main areas of storms in Eastern Kentucky and Southwest Virginia. The storms we do get will most likely produce heavy rains. I expect temperatures in the lower 90s depending on storms. Tomorrow chances of afternoon storms will exist with highs again in the lower 90s. The better chance of precipitation that was forecasted for Wednesday may not happen. This mainly due to frontal boundary staying farther north. It does look like a frontal boundary will move into the area by weeks end giving way to better chances of precipitation. The big story till then will be the increase in heat across the region as temperatures for Thursday are expected to get back into the mid to upper 90s. That coupled with high moisture will produce higher heat indices and make it feel much warmer.

Beginning With Rain....

Starting out with rain this morning across much of East Tennessee.  Most areas seeing light rain with a few pockets of heavier showers.

Radar at 7:20 AM EDT

I expect these showers and possibly a thunderstorm to plague the region most of today with moisture transport moving toward the region today.  Some of these showers and storms could be heavy at times with possibility of localized flooding.

SPC MesoAnalysis Precipitable Water for 7 AM EDT (arrow indicates axis of moisture)

Rain chances decrease for the weekend with mainly afternoon showers and thunderstorms as Atlantic ridge moves west.  Expect highs to return to the lower to mid 90s with lingering moisture will make for sticky conditions.

Update:
Chattanooga ended there 90 and above maximum temperature streak at 21 with yesterday's high of 79 degrees.

Changing Pattern....

Hope everyone had a safe and fun weekend.  Surface analysis this morning is indicating the frontal boundary that has been to the north has moved south almost into far North Kentucky.  This will become the main weather player going into the work week.  Today expect chances of showers and thunderstorms to be on the increase with highs in the lower to mid 90s.  Shower and thunderstorm chances increase greatly going into Monday and Tuesday with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s.  There will be chances of showers and thunderstorms through the week as the frontal boundary is forecasted to slow meander south.

Remember for the latest updates and advisory information for East Tennessee follow me on Twitter or ETweather Facebook page.

Still Storms Lingering Across The Area....

There are still some storms lingering across the area with a severe thunderstorm warning in SW Sevier and SE Blount.

GRLevel 2 Base Reflectivity 10:36 PM EDT

Storms Across The Area....

There are a couple of storms that have developed across the area.  One has prompted a severe thunderstorm warning across parts of Morgan, Anderson, and Roane County.

GRLevel 2 Base Reflectivity at 6:05 PM EDT

The Heat Continues....

Sorry for the lack of update this morning as it has been another busy weekend.  Hope all have stayed indoors today.  This marks another day in the 100s and this one was one for the record books.

Records For Today:

• Knoxville broke the record of 100 set back in 1952 with a high of 105 and this also broke the all-time record high of 104 set on July 12, 1930.
• Chattanooga broke the record of 103 set in 1952 with a high of 107 and this also broke the all-time record high of 106 set on July 28, 1952 and June 29, 2012.
• Tri-Cities broke the record of 95 set back in 1959 with a high of 103 and this also broke the all-time record high of 102 set on July 29, 1952 and June 29, 2012.

All the official recording stations in the area set all-time record highs today with the ridge firmly in place across the region.  This hot weather will be sticking around and the return of the moisture also.  The return of moisture also means the return of isolated thunderstorms mainly in the higher elevations.  Remember to take breaks and avoid the outdoors if possible.

Surpassed Expected High....

Well the upper 90s have been surpassed at Knoxville with the temperature at 4PM reading 100 degrees.  This is some oppressive heat with areas across the state coming in at 100 or above to include Nashville, Memphis, Chattanooga, Paris, Clarksville, and Oak Ridge.

Regional Temperatures at 4 PM EDT

The Heat Is On....

Well the temperature will begin to really heat up today as high pressure dominates the area.  I expect highs today in the mid to upper 90s for most locations.  I do expect this trend to continue with highs expected to get in the lower 100s for Friday and Saturday.  I do not expect any precipitation even into early next week with temperatures staying in the upper 90s.  Everyone that has plans outside this weekend should make sure you take frequent breaks, limit exposure to the sun, and drink plenty of water.


Heat Tips: 

• Take frequent breaks
• Drink plenty of water
• Limit time outdoors
• Keep pets indoors

Also for those who have problems breathing there is a Air Quality Alert for today code ORANGE for most of East Tennessee.

airnow.gov AQI Forecast for today

Heat Begins To Build In....

The heat will begin to build into the area today as high pressure dominates the surface. I expect clear skies and temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s.  The temperatures increase as we move into the weekend with parts of the region making it into the 100s.  This trend of 90s and 100s does not look to end anytime soon with long range models indicating zonal flow (meaning no troughs which help to produce precipitation and changes in temperature).  If you are going to be outside remember to drink plenty of water and limit time outside.

HPC Surface Analysis at 5:00 AM EDT

Heat Tips: 

• Take frequent breaks
• Drink plenty of water
• Limit time outdoors
• Keep pets indoors

Also for those who have problems breathing there is a Air Quality Alert for today code ORANGE for most of East Tennessee.

airnow.gov AQI Forecast for today 

Not As Cool

Well folks the temperatures this morning not quite as cool as expected with most areas staying the lower to mid 50s. This was due to some cloud cover across much of the area through the night. We might get cooler tonight with clear skies and lows expected to reach the mid 40s. Wonderful day for Thursday with sunny skies and mid 70s and then back to some showers and thunderstorms for your Friday. This same system will produce some severe weather in parts of the Midwest. Looks like clearing will come for the weekend with lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s and highs in the lower to mid 70s.

Flooding Chances Move In

Well the flooding that we saw across parts of West and Middle Tennessee have moved into parts of East Tennessee. As you can see by the watch and warning map from the Storm Prediction Center. Keep in mind that not everyone will see the flooding rains, but as usual with a system like this some will see their fair share. The system providing this moisture is still related to the low pressure that was sitting in the Texas area earlier this week. Even after this system moves out it does appear that another system in the west will move in and that keeps the chances of showers and thunderstorms in the forecast for most of the week. I would expect some clearing at the end of the week with less chances of rain. Beside today expect highs to be in the 80s and lows will stay in the in the 60s for the week.

More Rain....

Looks like this rain is continuing to stick around the area with numerous showers and a few thunderstorms possible through the day. The best chances of rain will be today through Monday. Then as we go through the week our chances come down and we may begin to see some clearing. High temperatures will be the upper 70s to lower and mid 80 and lows in the mid to upper 60s.

Long time no post....

Sorry for the long vacation if you will from the blog, but with school and work it was almost impossible to continue. Things have stabilized now, but could become busy as this school year gets underway.

Enough of that lets talk about the weather well for East Tennessee this week it has been a wet pattern due to a tropical low pressure system in the northern Louisiana area. This low pressure system will keep the chances for showers and thunderstorms in the forecast through most of the period. Looking at radar at this hour we have several scattered showers and thunderstorms across the area with the heaviest showers are over Monroe and Blount county. These showers and storms will continue to develop and move off to the NE. Keep in mind not everyone will see these showers, but some of you will see your fair share.

This rain has prompted some flooding in the middle and western parts of Tennessee where there are several counties under a flash flood watch.

Well many of you will be traveling to watch the Vols play against Florida on Saturday and well the moisture will be there in Gainesville as it has been across Tennessee with the National Weather Service calling for a 50% chance of showers and thunderstorms. These will mainly be during the afternoon so we will have to watch the radar as game time gets closer, so you might want to have your poncho handy in case there is some shower activity in The Swamp. Also expect some warm temperatures with highs in the in the upper 80s.