Summertime Pattern in Place

Forecast Discussion:

It does look like this typical summertime persistence forecast will prevail across East Tennessee with highs in the mid to upper 80s and lows lower to mid 60s.  As for today there are already showers and thunderstorms firing up across the Northern Plateau and will generally move to the east at 10 mph.  The pattern of storms will continue today with most of these storms firing up across the higher terrain.  Expect heavy rain and deadly lightning to be the main threat with these storms.

GRLevel 2 Radar Base Reflectivity 1518Z (11:18 AM EDT)

The long range model (GFS) does hint at a change in the pattern for later half of next week with an upper level trough swinging through the region.  This will aid in breaking down the 588 upper level ridge that is established across the Southeast.  I will continue to watch this as forecast models can and do change as we get closer to the forecast period.

NCEP 500MB map 06Z Valid for Saturday at 06Z (12 AM EST)