Isaac brings clouds and then rain for the weekend across East Tennessee

Today has started off with clouds across East Tennessee from now Tropical Storm Isaac..... Check out the Examiner for the rest here:   http://www.examiner.com/article/isaac-brings-clouds-and-then-rain-for-the-weekend-across-east-tennessee?cid=db_articles
http: exm.nr/RuHk7Ohttp://exm.nr/RuHk7O

Chances of storms on the increase for next week across East Tennessee

The drier conditions across East Tennessee continue today with surface high pressure in control. Today will be mostly sunny with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s..... Read more here http://exm.nr/SY5i8O

The dry days continue....

Today will be another dry but warmer day across East Tennessee with high pressure in control.  Highs will be in the mid to upper 80s.  Thursday will be mostly sunny with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s.  The moisture will begin returning as we go into Friday with slight chances of a popup storms across the higher terrain.  Highs will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s.  For the weekend expect mostly sunny skies with popup storms along the higher terrain.  Highs will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s.

The big weather story continues to be Tropical Storm Isaac.  Right now the storm is located just off the coasts of the Caribbean Islands.  This storm is still forecast to impact the US by early next week.  Right now the National Hurricane Center has it moving into the southern tip of Florida.  Anyone traveling to areas in Florida or the East Coast early next week should continue to monitor this tropical system.

Hurricanecity.com Model Forecast Tracks for Tropical Storm Isaac

Another Dry Day....

Well folks another dry day is in store for East Tennessee.  Today expect mostly sunny skies with highs in the lower to mid 80s.  Wednesday will bring mostly sunny skies once again with highs in the mid to upper 80s.  Temperatures will warm as the week goes on with upper level trough moving east and ridge building into the area.  This will also bring the return of moisture as we go into Friday.  Chances of precipitation will be low with mainly isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms going into the weekend.  Most of these will be in the higher terrain.  The more interesting weather will be in the tropics where Tropical Depression Nine will continue to strengthen.

National Hurricane Center Watch/Warning and Forecast

This system is forecast to become a hurricane by early Thursday morning.  The ensemble GFS model shows this storm could affect the US by early next week.  So if you have plans along the east coast you should monitor this tropical system as it could affect your plans.

Weather Underground ensemble GFS model plots

Sunny Week Ahead....

Once again will be a quick forecast this morning. Does look like we will have much drier conditions across East Tennessee this week. Today expect mostly sunny skies and highs in the lower to mid 80. Tomorrow same with highs in the lower to mid 80. Conditions should stay sunny most of the week with highs in the mid to upper 80. I will resume normal forecasting tomorrow. I hope you have a great day. I leave you with a view from Bush Stadium.

Clearing Today....

Will be out of the area for the weekend so updates will be quick. Today started off with a few scatter showers. I expect clearing out the afternoon with highs in the lower to mid 80s. Tomorrow clouds return with highs in the lower to mid 80s. Showers are possible going into Monday.

Storm This Afternoon....

Updating on the road this morning. Most areas starting off with clouds left over from storms that affected Nashville last night. I expect a active weather day across East Tennessee as the frontal boundary and upper level trough move through the region. The SPC still has all of East Tennessee in a slight risk today. Main threat will be damaging winds and heavy rain. Today will see highs in the lower to mid 80s. Clearing some for the weekend with highs in the lower to mid 80s. Will try to have a update later this afternoon. Stay safe out there.

Fog To Start....

Some areas are seeing some fog to start the day with temperatures in the in the lower 60 to upper 60s. I expect fog to clear and mostly sunny skies to prevail. Highs will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Tomorrow will be the more interesting weather day as cold front and strong upper level trough move to the east. This will give way to good chances of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon with highs in the mid to upper 80s. The Storm Prediction Center has issued a slight risk over all of Eastern Tennessee for Friday.

SPC Day 2 Convective Outlook for Friday at 8AM to Saturday at 8 AM EDT

The main risk will be strong winds and heavy rain. Saturday expect some clearing with partly cloudy skies and highs in the lower to mid 80s. Sunday there is some disagreement with chances of showers in the models. Right now will go with a chance of showers and highs in the lower to mid 80s. We clear out into early next week with highs in the lower to mid 80s.

Light Rain To Start....

Some areas are seeing some showers this morning as upper level disturbance and frontal system finally make there way through and out of the region.

GRLevel 2 Radar at 9:10 AM EDT/ Frontal Analysis at 5 AM EDT

I do expect some clearing later today with highs in the lower to mid 80s depending on cloud cover. Tomorrow will be warm with mostly sunny skies and highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s. A unseasonably strong upper level trough will begin affecting the area going into Friday.

NCEP 500mb Height/Wind/Vorticity for Friday at 2 PM EDT as modeled by NAM on Left and GFS on right

This will bring good chances of showers and thunderstorms as frontal boundary moves into the area. Right now it does look like the severe threat will be low, but can't rule out isolated severe threat. The weekend will see partly sunny skies and highs in the lower to mid 80s. Clearing out going into early next week with highs forecast to be in the low to mid 80s.

Starting Off With Showers And Storms....

Some Areas are starting off with some showers and thunderstorms this morning including Knoxville with temperatures in the mid to upper 60s.

GRLevel 2 Radar at 8:02 AM EDT/Frontal Analysis at 5 AM EDT

Today I expect showers and thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon with approaching frontal boundary. The chances of strong to severe storms is low, but possible as instability is forecast to be in the 1000 g/kg range. Main threat would be isolated strong wind. Highs will be in the lower to mid 80s. Tomorrow expect mostly to partly cloudy skies with highs in the mid to upper 80s. Thursday will be partly cloudy with highs in the upper 80s. Next best chance of Precipitation will be going into Friday and Early Saturday as yet another frontal boundary and associated upper level wave move through the region.

Chances Of Rain Return....

Starting off the morning in the lower 60s across much of the area with Tri-Cities the cooler spot in the upper 50s. I hope you enjoyed a beautiful weekend with highs in the lower to mid 80s and Clear skies. Today should be another nice day with mostly sunny skies and highs in the mid to upper 80s. I expect clouds to move in later tonight with chances of showers and storms late. Tomorrow showers and storms possible in the early morning and then more showers and storms possible later in the afternoon. This activity will be kicked off by a cold front that is approaching the region.

SimuAWIPS Frontal Analysis for Early Monday

Some of the storms later tomorrow could be strong with strong wind and heavy rain. Weather clears up for Wednesday with mostly sunny skies and highs in the mid to upper 80s. Next chances of precipitation will be late Friday into Saturday as yet another cold front moves through the region. This is a active pattern for August with multiple longwave troughs moving through the region.

Dry And Cooler Day....

Starting off the morning for most areas in the upper 60s with cloud cover.  Expect a great day ahead with frontal boundary southeast of the area mostly sunny skies will prevail.  Highs will be in the lower to mid 80s.

SimuAWIPS Frontal Position at 6:30 AM EDT and Visible Satellite at 9:05 AM EDT

Continued dry tomorrow with mostly sunny skies and highs a touch warmer in the mid to upper 80s.  Another frontal boundary will approach the area late Monday night into Tuesday bringing chances of showers and thunderstorms.  Slight chances for Wednesday into Thursday and another trough and frontal boundary moves into the region for Friday.

SimuAWIPS GFS 500mb Height/Wind For Friday Aug. 17 at 2 PM EDT

I expect highs Monday through Thursday in the mid to upper 80s for the Valley and Northeast Tennessee and upper 80s to lower 90s for the Southern Valley.

Starting Off With Showers....

Good morning folks we are starting off with a few pre-frontal showers this morning.  Quite a few areas will be getting wet with showers stretching across all of East Tennessee.

GRLevel 2 Radar at 8:21 AM EDT

I expect as the front approaches and moves through the region we will have better chances of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon.  The big question this morning is will the atmosphere recover from this morning and yesterday.  Right now I think we will have enough to produce some strong to possibly severe storms this afternoon with heavy rains and wind being the biggest impact.  The timing on this should be this afternoon around 2 to 3 PM.  Highs will be in the lower to mid 80s with cloud cover and precip.  Tomorrow I expect much drier and cooler conditions with some cloud cover.  Highs will be in the lower to mid 80s.  Sunday mostly sunny and drier with highs in the mid to upper 80s.  Chances of precipitation return for Tuesday along with dewpoints back in the 60s.

Quick Forecast Update....

Due to some work this morning I was unable to send out the regular forecast.  We do have ongoing storms at this time with some severe.  Expect this line of storms to push through the area over the next few hours.  Good chances of storms will exist tomorrow with best chance being around 12 to 5 PM.  Some of these storms could be strong with highs in the lower to mid 80s.  Clearing out for Saturday with highs in the lower  to mid 80s.  Remember to follow on Facebook or Twitter for the latest on the severe weather coming through the area.

Slight Chances Of Storms....

Some areas have started off with some fog.  All areas are dry as far as precipitation goes this morning with partly cloudy skies.  Temperatures this morning are in the lower to mid 70s.

SimuAWIPS Visible Satellite at 9 AM EDT  

Frontal Boundary will push south of the area today with slight chances of afternoon storms in the higher terrain.  Highs will be in the lower to mid 90s.  Tomorrow expect increasing chances of storms mainly in the afternoon with highs in the lower 90s.  Good chances for morning and afternoon storms on Friday.  Highs will be in the mid 80s.  Timing on this system will be tricky with pre-frontal storms early and later the frontal boundary moves through the region.  The NAM is indicating frontal boundary to begin affecting the Plateau around 2 PM and the rest of the Valley at 5 PM.  Main threat for Friday will be high winds.  Then get ready for a nice weekend with skies clearing out.  Temperatures will be in the lower 60s for lows and highs in the mid to upper 80s.

SimuAWIPS Surface Temperature and MSL pressure at 5 PM Saturday

Storms To Start....

Radar is indicating a few showers and thunderstorms across the area this morning.  This is associated with the pesky frontal boundary that has been affecting the region over the past few days.

GRLevel 2 Base Reflectivity at 9:26 AM EDT

Showers and thunderstorms will be possible through the day with the aforementioned boundary.  Highs will be in the mid to upper 80s.  Tomorrow expect a drier day with only a slight chance of a storm in the higher terrain.  Highs will be in the lower 90s.  Thursday expect a increased chances of showers and thunderstorms with approaching cold front and upper level trough.  Friday expect frontal boundary to move through the region giving way to showers and thunderstorms with highs in the mid to upper 80s.  This system is forecast to be one of the stronger upper level systems we have seen in quiet some time.  This system could cause some severe weather and I will be monitoring the possibilities across the area over the next few days.

SimuAWIPS NAM:left/GFS:right Comparison for Friday at 18Z/2 PM EDT

This high amplitude system will carve out the summer temperatures for the weekend with highs in the lower to mid 80s.

Another Wet One....

Another wet day will be possible across much of the area.  There is already some showers that have already formed out ahead of the boundary this morning.  The heavy rains from yesterday have also prompted a Flash Flood Watch across parts of the area.

SimuAWIPS Regional Radar for 8:55 AM EDT

Watch/Warning Map at 9:03 AM

I expect more showers and storms to fire later today as quasi-stationary frontal boundary moves through the region later tonight into Tuesday.  highs today in the lower to mid 80s depending on cloud cover and precipitation.  Tuesday chances of showers and storms mainly in the higher terrain and Northeast Tennessee.  highs in the mid to upper 80s.  Wednesday will dry out some with partly cloudy skies and highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s.  Storm chances increase going into Thursday and Friday as another frontal boundary is forecast to approach the area with highs in the mid to upper 80s.

Stormy Day....

Showers and thunderstorms will mainly affect the Northern Plateau and Valley as well as Northeast Tennessee this morning.

SimuAWIPS Radar at 9:15

These storms are not severe and are left over from storms that affecting parts of Missouri.  I expect as the cold front continue to move east that we will see more showers and thunderstorms as the day goes on.  This has prompted a slight risk across the area with main threat being damaging wind and heavy rain with precipitable water values being on the 2 inch range this afternoon.

SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook for 9 AM today till 8 AM Monday

The area will see good chances of storms tonight through tomorrow as frontal boundary slowly moves through the area.  Highs should be in the mid to upper 80s with cloud cover and storms.  This weak front will not cool or clear out the moist and unstable air mass, so will keep a chance of showers and thunderstorms most of the week with a increase chance for Thursday.  Highs will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s.

Showers And Thunderstorms....

Showers and thunderstorms will be likely today with upper level trough continuing to move east. The trough axis will be parked over the upper Mississippi River Valley.

SimuAWIPS 500mb heights/wind

This will give the area chances of storms through Monday with highs in the upper to lower 90s. Some of these storms could be strong with high winds and small hail the main threat. I think wind will be the big issue especially late Sunday with possible squall line.

SPC Day 2 Convective Outlook for 8AM Sunday to 8AM Monday

Hopefully back to more isolated activity on Tuesday with highs in the lower 90s.

Showers And Storms Likely....

Starting off the morning in the mid to upper 70s across most areas with the usual cool spot in the Tri-cities where temperatures are in the upper 60s. Areas are seeing cloud cover with approaching upper level trough. This will give us a likely chance of showers and thunderstorms. The timing is not in sync with the NAM and RAP models, but based on location of precipitation and better verification with RAP will go with around lunch time.

SimuAWIPS Base Reflectivity at 8:45 AM EDT

Highs today should be in the mid to upper 80s depending on cloud cover and precipitation. Tomorrow expect good chance of storms with highs in the mid to upper 80s. Sunday much the same with chances of storms and highs in the mid to upper 80s. Looking at the long range does look like could have precipitation chances continuing for Monday, and possibly some clearing by Wednesday high temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s.

Storms Possible....

Most areas starting off in the mid to upper 60s this morning with Chattanooga the warm spot in the lower 70s.  Areas of fog will affect travel for the next few hours with visibilities possibly 1 or 2 miles depending on the area.  Northwest flow aloft will continue across East Tennessee with a weak front to the north.

SimuAWIPS 500 mb Flow/Frontal Analysis/Water Vapor Satellite

Today showers and thunderstorms will be possible with focus point being the Plateau.  Some of these storms could move through the Valley as the afternoon goes on.  Highs will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s.  Thursday expect drier day with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s.  Friday increase chances of storms as short wave approaches the area with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s.

SimuAWIPS 500 mb Winds/Heights for Friday at 2 PM EDT