Showers And Thunderstorms....

Showers and thunderstorms will be likely today with upper level trough continuing to move east. The trough axis will be parked over the upper Mississippi River Valley.

SimuAWIPS 500mb heights/wind

This will give the area chances of storms through Monday with highs in the upper to lower 90s. Some of these storms could be strong with high winds and small hail the main threat. I think wind will be the big issue especially late Sunday with possible squall line.

SPC Day 2 Convective Outlook for 8AM Sunday to 8AM Monday

Hopefully back to more isolated activity on Tuesday with highs in the lower 90s.

Showers And Storms Likely....

Starting off the morning in the mid to upper 70s across most areas with the usual cool spot in the Tri-cities where temperatures are in the upper 60s. Areas are seeing cloud cover with approaching upper level trough. This will give us a likely chance of showers and thunderstorms. The timing is not in sync with the NAM and RAP models, but based on location of precipitation and better verification with RAP will go with around lunch time.

SimuAWIPS Base Reflectivity at 8:45 AM EDT

Highs today should be in the mid to upper 80s depending on cloud cover and precipitation. Tomorrow expect good chance of storms with highs in the mid to upper 80s. Sunday much the same with chances of storms and highs in the mid to upper 80s. Looking at the long range does look like could have precipitation chances continuing for Monday, and possibly some clearing by Wednesday high temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s.

Storms Possible....

Most areas starting off in the mid to upper 60s this morning with Chattanooga the warm spot in the lower 70s.  Areas of fog will affect travel for the next few hours with visibilities possibly 1 or 2 miles depending on the area.  Northwest flow aloft will continue across East Tennessee with a weak front to the north.

SimuAWIPS 500 mb Flow/Frontal Analysis/Water Vapor Satellite

Today showers and thunderstorms will be possible with focus point being the Plateau.  Some of these storms could move through the Valley as the afternoon goes on.  Highs will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s.  Thursday expect drier day with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s.  Friday increase chances of storms as short wave approaches the area with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s.

SimuAWIPS 500 mb Winds/Heights for Friday at 2 PM EDT

Early Storms....

Showers and thunderstorms have started off your day in parts of the area. Heaviest area of showers and thunderstorms remained in the Southern Valley with some more scattered activity for the Central Valley. Northeast Tennessee remains mostly dry this morning as expected. Temperatures are in the upper 60s to lower 70s across most areas this morning.

GRLevel 2 Base Reflectivity at 8:23 AM EDT

Rest of today will be clearing out with slight chances of afternoon storms highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Tomorrow expect slight chances of storms mainly on the higher terrain with highs in the lower 90s. Warm day for Thursday with storms chances increasing slightly still mainly higher terrain activity with highs in the lower to mid 90s. Increase chances of precipitation for Friday through the weekend with highs in the lower 90s.

Update....

After looking at the model data that came out this morning it does look like the MCS will begin moving into the area in the early morning hours between 2 AM and 5 AM EDT.  The same holds true as it did in my forecast this morning the best chances will be in the Southern Valley near Chattanooga with less chances in Northeast Tennessee toward Johnson City.  The Storm Prediction Center has also nudged slight risk south with far Southern Valley including Chattanooga still in the risk area.  I will continue to monitor as system develops.

Slight Chance Of Storms....

Starting off some what cooler across the area this morning with temperatures in the lower 70s across most areas. Frontal system that has been the focus for weather over the past several days is still to our north.

SimuAWIPS frontal analysis at 6:40 AM/Radar at 7:45 AM

There could be a slight chance of storms as boundary rolls through the area with highs in the lower 90s. Right now looking at a sunny day for Sunday with highs in the lower 90s. Slight chances of storms return Monday with highs staying in the 90s. Best chances of storms return for your Tuesday and Wednesday. Highs will stay in the lower 90s.

Storms Possible....

Well starting off mild with temperatures across the area in the upper 70s to lower 80s. The quasi-stationary frontal boundary that aided in the development of storms that caused all the wind damage from Connecticut down to Texas is still west of the Tennessee this morning.

SimuAWIPS Frontal Analysis 6:30 AM/Radar at 8:55 AM

I do expect as frontal boundary continues to approach the region some showers and thunderstorms will form out ahead of the main boundary. The question this morning is how much will the atmosphere be able to recover in order to get development across East Tennessee. Right now NAM, RAP, and WRF models are indicating storms moving into the Valley around 2 PM and the HRRR shows some activity at 2 PM with more through 5 PM.  Expecting marginal instability but weaker upper level support, so little in the way of severe weather today. Main threat with these storms will continue to be damaging winds with stronger storms. I will continue to monitor throughout the day for development. Tomorrow will be drier as weak boundary moves through the area with highs in the lower 90s. The biggest affect from the frontal boundary will be the drier nights with lows getting back into the upper 60s. Sunday another drier day with highs in the lower 90s. Chances of storms increase Monday through Wednesday with best chance right now Wednesday.

Another Hot One....

Staring off the morning with some fog across the higher terrain and Northeast Tennessee.  Temperatures across the region are generally in the upper 70s with the cool spot being the Tri-Cities in the lower 70s.

SimuAWIPS Visible Satellite/Surface Fronts  

Low chances of any storms today with highs in the mid to upper 90s across the region.  The main impact today will be the hot temperatures coupled with dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s.  This will allow heat indices in the 100s.  Showers and storms out ahead of impending cold front will be possible across the area in the early morning hours tomorrow.  The best chances of showers and thunderstorms will be tomorrow afternoon around 2 to 5 PM.

SimuAWIPS NAM 06Z Composite Radar for Friday 07/27/12 at 2 PM

Saturday afternoon cold front will finally pass through the area.  Some relief in temperatures expected with highs in the lower 90s.  Watching another complex of storms that develops across the upper plains early Saturday and is modeled to approach the region late Sunday.  The models sometimes have a hard time handling this, but the NAM model has been consistent in showing this system moving toward the region.

Isolated Storms....

Starting off the morning with some rain and storms across Northeast Tennessee.  The main area of rain has moved south with a few showers possibly moving into the area from Eastern Kentucky.

SimuAWIPS Radar at 8:55 AM

Most of East Tennessee is dry this morning but mild with temperatures in the upper 70s and the rain cooled spot Tri-Cities in the upper 60s. Expect a summer like setup today with storms firing up mainly across the higher terrain. Some of the storms could drift into the Valley with heavy rain being the main threat. The heat will also be a factor today with temperatures expected to get into the mid to upper 90s. These temperatures coupled with dewpoints in the lower 70 will make for high heat indices in the upper 90s to 100s. Make sure to take breaks when outside and drink plenty of fluids. Another similar day for Thursday with isolated storms possible and high in the mid to upper 90s. Again high heat indices possible as warm moist air moves north ahead of the cold front. Best chances of rain will be Friday with timing looking to be early afternoon right now. Clearing for the weekend with highs in the lower 90s.

Thunderstorms With Some Strong....

Most areas starting off in the mid to upper 70s with the cool spot being the Tri-Cities in the lower 70s.  The story today is we are monitoring a thunderstorm complex that has setup over the Ohio Valley this morning.

SimuAWIPS Radar 8:45 AM/Fronts 6:40 AM

This complex has the capability of producing damaging winds and heavy rain.  Currently the timing of this complex is at question with RAP model indicating later this afternoon and NAM model later tonight.

SimuAWIPS Left RAP at 6 PM and Right NAM at 11 PM

Models due conflict with these complexes sometimes and will need to see next run of the NAM coming out by early afternoon. Currently going to go with the RAP and expect showers and thunderstorms complex to come in later this afternoon.  It does look like storms are forming south so we could some storms earlier ahead of complex.

SimuAWIPS Radar at 9:05 AM

This system has prompted a Slight risk across the area with damaging winds being the main threat.

SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook

Tomorrow expect chances of afternoon thunderstorms with highs in the mid 90s.  Another warm day on tap for Thursday with highs in the mid to upper 90s.  It will be hot and sticky as dewpoints will be in the lower 70s.  Friday another good chance of storms as frontal boundary approaches the area.  Temperatures for the weekend make it back into the upper 80s to lower 90s.

Isolated Storms....

This morning we are starting off with partly to mostly cloudy skies with a few areas of fog.  Dominate feature is the upper level ridge aloft.

SimuAWIPS 500mb Height and Wind/Water Vapor Satellite

Today will be another day of possible storms mostly in the afternoon and higher terrain. Although hopefully it will be a bust like yesterday with main areas of storms in Eastern Kentucky and Southwest Virginia. The storms we do get will most likely produce heavy rains. I expect temperatures in the lower 90s depending on storms. Tomorrow chances of afternoon storms will exist with highs again in the lower 90s. The better chance of precipitation that was forecasted for Wednesday may not happen. This mainly due to frontal boundary staying farther north. It does look like a frontal boundary will move into the area by weeks end giving way to better chances of precipitation. The big story till then will be the increase in heat across the region as temperatures for Thursday are expected to get back into the mid to upper 90s. That coupled with high moisture will produce higher heat indices and make it feel much warmer.

Slight Chances Of Storms....

A few showers are affecting Northeast Tennessee this morning and will continue to move to the east out of the region.

SimuAWIPS Radar 7:45 AM EDT/Front 6:30 AM EDT

Today will be similar to yesterday with chances of pulse storms across the region. Mainly affecting the mountains with some making it to the Valley. Expect highs to be in the upper 80s to lower 90s depending on storms. For your work week expect continued chances of showers and thunderstorms. The better coverage of storms will be Tuesday and Wednesday as upper level trough begins to dig farther south.

SimuAWIPS 500mb heights/wind for Tuesday at 5 PM EDT

Stormy....

Surface analysis from HPC indicates weak frontal boundary still parked north of the area along the northern Kentucky border.

HPC Surface Analysis for 5 AM

As this front moves south expect more storms to fire out ahead of this boundary.  The big factor here will be how much can we recover after storms last night.  We still have left over showers and few embedded storms mainly along the Plateau and Southern Valley.

GRLevel 2 Base Reflectivity at 8:43 AM EDT

The main threat today will be heavy rains and strong wind.  I will continue to monitor changes as morning and afternoon goes on.  Saturday expect chances of afternoon showers and thunderstorms with highs in the upper 80s.  The forecast for Sunday does look drier, but will have to monitor as upper level high shifts east will see possibility of storms systems rotating around the high.  Expect temperatures to return to the lower 90s going into the work week.

More Showers And Thunderstorms....

Chances of showers and thunderstorms today with some upper level help swinging through the area.  These disturbances will be weak so expect slow moving activity again today.  Main impact will be heavy rain/flooding and lightning.  Once again with plenty of moisture in place precipitable water values are around 1.6 to 1.9 this morning.  Highs today will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s depending on cloud cover.

SPC MesoAnalysis Precipitable Water/Radar

Still looking at tomorrow for best chances of storms with some being strong late in the day on Friday.  The weak frontal boundary to the north coupled with short wave energy will be the focus for convection.  Main severe weather threat right now is forecasted to be north and west of most of the area, but would not rule a a few severe storms in East Tennessee.

SPC Day 2 Convective Outlook 8AM Friday to 8AM Saturday

Your weekend looks to be warm with more afternoon convection with higher terrain being the focal point.  Highs for the weekend will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s.  Chances of precipitation go down Sunday through Monday and increase by Wednesday.

Another Stormy Day....

Another stormy day with Southern Plateau and Valley starting off with showers and thunderstorms.  This has prompted a urban and small streams advisory for Rhea County.  I expect heavy rain to be main threat again today with precipitable water values starting off in the 1.5 to 2.0 inch range.

GRLevel 2 Base Reflectivity at 9:03 AM EDT

SPC MesoAnalysis Precipitable Water and Radar

Expect chances of showers and thunderstorms to continue today with highs in the lower 90s depending on cloud cover.  Remember greatest threat will be heavy rain and lightning.  I expect better chances for tomorrow and Friday as weak frontal boundary and low move toward the region.  I expect highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s depending on storms.  This weekend expect chances of afternoon storms with highs in the lower 90s.

Showers And Thunderstorms Possible....

It does look like another day of showers and thunderstorms will be possible with main initiation occurring in the higher terrain.  The main threat today will be possibility of heavy rain with precipitable water values in the 1.5 to 2.0 inch range.

SimuAWIPS Precipitable Water at 3 PM EDT

Highs today will be hot with highs in the lower to mid 90s.  Tomorrow I expect there to be chances of showers and thunderstorms with highs in the lower 90s.  Better chances of storms will be possible going into Thursday and Friday as a frontal boundary moves into the area.  This front will not affect temperatures with high this weekend remaining in the lower 90s.

More Chances Of Storms....

Another day of showers and thunderstorms possible.  Most of the activity will begin in the higher terrain with isolated storms in the Valley.  

SimuAwips RAP 2 PM EDT simulated radar indicating mainly  Plateau and Mountain activity 

Temperatures across the area will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s.  Tuesday expect more isolated storms with highs in the lower 90s.  Increase chances of rain going into Thursday and Friday as a weak frontal boundary moves south into the region.  Temperatures going into the weekend will be in the lower 90s with more afternoon variety storms.

Showers And Thunderstorms Possible....

A warm day is on tap with showers and thunderstorms possible as we go into the afternoon.  It is likely that most of the storms will form in the higher terrain, but Valley areas will also see pop up storms.  Some showers have already developed across the Southern Valley and Plateau.

GRLevel 2 Base Reflectivity at 11:07 AM EDT

I expect temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s.  It does look like the trend of afternoon thunderstorms and temperatures generally in the upper 80s to lower 90s will continue most of this coming week.  This will be due to trough and ridge transitions throughout the week, as ridge moves in from the east then recedes by the end of the week to a trough.

Beginning With Rain....

Starting out with rain this morning across much of East Tennessee.  Most areas seeing light rain with a few pockets of heavier showers.

Radar at 7:20 AM EDT

I expect these showers and possibly a thunderstorm to plague the region most of today with moisture transport moving toward the region today.  Some of these showers and storms could be heavy at times with possibility of localized flooding.

SPC MesoAnalysis Precipitable Water for 7 AM EDT (arrow indicates axis of moisture)

Rain chances decrease for the weekend with mainly afternoon showers and thunderstorms as Atlantic ridge moves west.  Expect highs to return to the lower to mid 90s with lingering moisture will make for sticky conditions.

Update:
Chattanooga ended there 90 and above maximum temperature streak at 21 with yesterday's high of 79 degrees.

Rain To Start The Day....

Many parts of the region are seeing rain to start out the day with showers and possibly a few embedded thunderstorms moving through much of East Tennessee.

Radar at 7:34 AM EDT

It does look like showers and thunderstorms will be likely today with highs in the lower to mid 80s.  Again today many of these storms will produce heavy rains with precipitable water values around 1.5 to 1.8.  forecasts are indicating these values will be higher as we go into the afternoon.

SPC MesoAnalysis Precipitable Water at 7 AM EDT

So if you have outdoor plans today the weather could change rapidly.  Main threat today will be heavy rain and lightning.  Good chances of showers and thunderstorms will persist through the rest of the week.  It does look like this weekend high temperatures will return to the lower to mid 90s with afternoon thunderstorms possible.