Quick Forecast Update....

Due to some work this morning I was unable to send out the regular forecast.  We do have ongoing storms at this time with some severe.  Expect this line of storms to push through the area over the next few hours.  Good chances of storms will exist tomorrow with best chance being around 12 to 5 PM.  Some of these storms could be strong with highs in the lower to mid 80s.  Clearing out for Saturday with highs in the lower  to mid 80s.  Remember to follow on Facebook or Twitter for the latest on the severe weather coming through the area.

Slight Chances Of Storms....

Some areas have started off with some fog.  All areas are dry as far as precipitation goes this morning with partly cloudy skies.  Temperatures this morning are in the lower to mid 70s.

SimuAWIPS Visible Satellite at 9 AM EDT  

Frontal Boundary will push south of the area today with slight chances of afternoon storms in the higher terrain.  Highs will be in the lower to mid 90s.  Tomorrow expect increasing chances of storms mainly in the afternoon with highs in the lower 90s.  Good chances for morning and afternoon storms on Friday.  Highs will be in the mid 80s.  Timing on this system will be tricky with pre-frontal storms early and later the frontal boundary moves through the region.  The NAM is indicating frontal boundary to begin affecting the Plateau around 2 PM and the rest of the Valley at 5 PM.  Main threat for Friday will be high winds.  Then get ready for a nice weekend with skies clearing out.  Temperatures will be in the lower 60s for lows and highs in the mid to upper 80s.

SimuAWIPS Surface Temperature and MSL pressure at 5 PM Saturday

Storms To Start....

Radar is indicating a few showers and thunderstorms across the area this morning.  This is associated with the pesky frontal boundary that has been affecting the region over the past few days.

GRLevel 2 Base Reflectivity at 9:26 AM EDT

Showers and thunderstorms will be possible through the day with the aforementioned boundary.  Highs will be in the mid to upper 80s.  Tomorrow expect a drier day with only a slight chance of a storm in the higher terrain.  Highs will be in the lower 90s.  Thursday expect a increased chances of showers and thunderstorms with approaching cold front and upper level trough.  Friday expect frontal boundary to move through the region giving way to showers and thunderstorms with highs in the mid to upper 80s.  This system is forecast to be one of the stronger upper level systems we have seen in quiet some time.  This system could cause some severe weather and I will be monitoring the possibilities across the area over the next few days.

SimuAWIPS NAM:left/GFS:right Comparison for Friday at 18Z/2 PM EDT

This high amplitude system will carve out the summer temperatures for the weekend with highs in the lower to mid 80s.

Another Wet One....

Another wet day will be possible across much of the area.  There is already some showers that have already formed out ahead of the boundary this morning.  The heavy rains from yesterday have also prompted a Flash Flood Watch across parts of the area.

SimuAWIPS Regional Radar for 8:55 AM EDT

Watch/Warning Map at 9:03 AM

I expect more showers and storms to fire later today as quasi-stationary frontal boundary moves through the region later tonight into Tuesday.  highs today in the lower to mid 80s depending on cloud cover and precipitation.  Tuesday chances of showers and storms mainly in the higher terrain and Northeast Tennessee.  highs in the mid to upper 80s.  Wednesday will dry out some with partly cloudy skies and highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s.  Storm chances increase going into Thursday and Friday as another frontal boundary is forecast to approach the area with highs in the mid to upper 80s.

Stormy Day....

Showers and thunderstorms will mainly affect the Northern Plateau and Valley as well as Northeast Tennessee this morning.

SimuAWIPS Radar at 9:15

These storms are not severe and are left over from storms that affecting parts of Missouri.  I expect as the cold front continue to move east that we will see more showers and thunderstorms as the day goes on.  This has prompted a slight risk across the area with main threat being damaging wind and heavy rain with precipitable water values being on the 2 inch range this afternoon.

SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook for 9 AM today till 8 AM Monday

The area will see good chances of storms tonight through tomorrow as frontal boundary slowly moves through the area.  Highs should be in the mid to upper 80s with cloud cover and storms.  This weak front will not cool or clear out the moist and unstable air mass, so will keep a chance of showers and thunderstorms most of the week with a increase chance for Thursday.  Highs will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s.

Showers And Thunderstorms....

Showers and thunderstorms will be likely today with upper level trough continuing to move east. The trough axis will be parked over the upper Mississippi River Valley.

SimuAWIPS 500mb heights/wind

This will give the area chances of storms through Monday with highs in the upper to lower 90s. Some of these storms could be strong with high winds and small hail the main threat. I think wind will be the big issue especially late Sunday with possible squall line.

SPC Day 2 Convective Outlook for 8AM Sunday to 8AM Monday

Hopefully back to more isolated activity on Tuesday with highs in the lower 90s.

Showers And Storms Likely....

Starting off the morning in the mid to upper 70s across most areas with the usual cool spot in the Tri-cities where temperatures are in the upper 60s. Areas are seeing cloud cover with approaching upper level trough. This will give us a likely chance of showers and thunderstorms. The timing is not in sync with the NAM and RAP models, but based on location of precipitation and better verification with RAP will go with around lunch time.

SimuAWIPS Base Reflectivity at 8:45 AM EDT

Highs today should be in the mid to upper 80s depending on cloud cover and precipitation. Tomorrow expect good chance of storms with highs in the mid to upper 80s. Sunday much the same with chances of storms and highs in the mid to upper 80s. Looking at the long range does look like could have precipitation chances continuing for Monday, and possibly some clearing by Wednesday high temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s.

Storms Possible....

Most areas starting off in the mid to upper 60s this morning with Chattanooga the warm spot in the lower 70s.  Areas of fog will affect travel for the next few hours with visibilities possibly 1 or 2 miles depending on the area.  Northwest flow aloft will continue across East Tennessee with a weak front to the north.

SimuAWIPS 500 mb Flow/Frontal Analysis/Water Vapor Satellite

Today showers and thunderstorms will be possible with focus point being the Plateau.  Some of these storms could move through the Valley as the afternoon goes on.  Highs will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s.  Thursday expect drier day with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s.  Friday increase chances of storms as short wave approaches the area with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s.

SimuAWIPS 500 mb Winds/Heights for Friday at 2 PM EDT