Thunderstorms With Some Strong....

Most areas starting off in the mid to upper 70s with the cool spot being the Tri-Cities in the lower 70s.  The story today is we are monitoring a thunderstorm complex that has setup over the Ohio Valley this morning.

SimuAWIPS Radar 8:45 AM/Fronts 6:40 AM

This complex has the capability of producing damaging winds and heavy rain.  Currently the timing of this complex is at question with RAP model indicating later this afternoon and NAM model later tonight.

SimuAWIPS Left RAP at 6 PM and Right NAM at 11 PM

Models due conflict with these complexes sometimes and will need to see next run of the NAM coming out by early afternoon. Currently going to go with the RAP and expect showers and thunderstorms complex to come in later this afternoon.  It does look like storms are forming south so we could some storms earlier ahead of complex.

SimuAWIPS Radar at 9:05 AM

This system has prompted a Slight risk across the area with damaging winds being the main threat.

SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook

Tomorrow expect chances of afternoon thunderstorms with highs in the mid 90s.  Another warm day on tap for Thursday with highs in the mid to upper 90s.  It will be hot and sticky as dewpoints will be in the lower 70s.  Friday another good chance of storms as frontal boundary approaches the area.  Temperatures for the weekend make it back into the upper 80s to lower 90s.

Rain To Start The Day....

Many parts of the region are seeing rain to start out the day with showers and possibly a few embedded thunderstorms moving through much of East Tennessee.

Radar at 7:34 AM EDT

It does look like showers and thunderstorms will be likely today with highs in the lower to mid 80s.  Again today many of these storms will produce heavy rains with precipitable water values around 1.5 to 1.8.  forecasts are indicating these values will be higher as we go into the afternoon.

SPC MesoAnalysis Precipitable Water at 7 AM EDT

So if you have outdoor plans today the weather could change rapidly.  Main threat today will be heavy rain and lightning.  Good chances of showers and thunderstorms will persist through the rest of the week.  It does look like this weekend high temperatures will return to the lower to mid 90s with afternoon thunderstorms possible.

More Chances Of Rain And Thunderstorms....

Today will be much like yesterday where some areas see more rain than others.  We started off the morning with areas across the central Valley receiving rain and thunderstorms.  Currently the storms have generally set up along the upper level divergence zone along the border of Tennessee and Kentucky/Virginia.

SPC MesoAnalysis radar and 300mb analysis

Another big story will be the possibility for heavy rain across parts of East Tennessee with precipitable water index in the 1.8 to 2.0 across Tennessee this morning.  Temperatures should be in the mid to upper 80s depending on storms and cloud cover.  It will continue to be sticky outside with moist air continuing to stream north from the gulf.  Good chances of showers and thunderstorms continue most of the week with best chances for Wednesday and Thursday as more upper level support moves into the region.  expect high temperatures to continue to be in the lower to mid 80s depending on storms and cloud cover.

HPC total precipitation for 8AM EDT Tuesday to 8AM EDT Friday

Changing Pattern....

Hope everyone had a safe and fun weekend.  Surface analysis this morning is indicating the frontal boundary that has been to the north has moved south almost into far North Kentucky.  This will become the main weather player going into the work week.  Today expect chances of showers and thunderstorms to be on the increase with highs in the lower to mid 90s.  Shower and thunderstorm chances increase greatly going into Monday and Tuesday with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s.  There will be chances of showers and thunderstorms through the week as the frontal boundary is forecasted to slow meander south.

Remember for the latest updates and advisory information for East Tennessee follow me on Twitter or ETweather Facebook page.

Greater Chances Of Showers And Thunderstorms....

Forecast Discussion:

Well folks a busy and changing forecast has presented itself this morning.  I do expect a increase chance of showers and thunderstorms today with a approaching upper level disturbance that is producing a MCS across the Ohio Valley this morning.  The air mass across the area if forecasted to be moist and unstable.  This will give way to chances for damaging winds, heavy rain and hail.  This has prompted the Storm Prediction Center to put all of East Tennessee under a slight risk for Severe Storms.  If you have outdoor plans this afternoon please keep a eye to the sky as conditions could change rapidly.  Also be sure to follow us on Twitter or Facebook for updated warnings.  Highs today will be in the lower to mid 90s.

SPC Slight Risk is the area inside the green line updated at 8:40 AM EDT

Now moving forward into Friday and Saturday where the story will be the return of the heat with highs expected to be in the upper 90s with 100s possible is some spots.  These high temperatures coupled with the moist air mass will lead to high heat indices.  There will also be chances of showers and thunderstorms mainly in the higher terrain.  If you have plans for the weekend make sure you drink plenty of water and limit time outdoors.

Twister Data NAM 12Z/8AM forecast for surface temperatures for Saturday at 2 PM EDT

Then going into Sunday through Tuesday we have increase chances for rain with a frontal boundary proged to move south into the Tennessee Valley.  The exact timing of this system is still a little uncertain as models have been some what different.  GFS MOS data does indicate that temperatures will drop into the 80s with some much needed rain occurring across the area.  I will keep you updated on this as forecast becomes clearer on timing.

HPC forecasted Precipitation from Sunday at 8AM to Tuesday at 8AM

Not As Cool

Well folks the temperatures this morning not quite as cool as expected with most areas staying the lower to mid 50s. This was due to some cloud cover across much of the area through the night. We might get cooler tonight with clear skies and lows expected to reach the mid 40s. Wonderful day for Thursday with sunny skies and mid 70s and then back to some showers and thunderstorms for your Friday. This same system will produce some severe weather in parts of the Midwest. Looks like clearing will come for the weekend with lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s and highs in the lower to mid 70s.

Flooding Chances Move In

Well the flooding that we saw across parts of West and Middle Tennessee have moved into parts of East Tennessee. As you can see by the watch and warning map from the Storm Prediction Center. Keep in mind that not everyone will see the flooding rains, but as usual with a system like this some will see their fair share. The system providing this moisture is still related to the low pressure that was sitting in the Texas area earlier this week. Even after this system moves out it does appear that another system in the west will move in and that keeps the chances of showers and thunderstorms in the forecast for most of the week. I would expect some clearing at the end of the week with less chances of rain. Beside today expect highs to be in the 80s and lows will stay in the in the 60s for the week.

More Rain....

Looks like this rain is continuing to stick around the area with numerous showers and a few thunderstorms possible through the day. The best chances of rain will be today through Monday. Then as we go through the week our chances come down and we may begin to see some clearing. High temperatures will be the upper 70s to lower and mid 80 and lows in the mid to upper 60s.

Some Showers Late In The Weekend....

Forecast:

Today sunny with highs in the lower 70s. Tonight will be clear with lows in the lower 40s. Expect some clouds to move into the area for Saturday with highs in the lower 70s. Saturday night slight chance of some showers late with lows in the mid to upper 40s.

Climate Data From ETWeather Blog Weather Station:

High: 69.3
Low: 39.1
Precip: none

Sun And Clouds For Your Sunday....

Forecast Discussion:

Today we will see clouds and sun with highs in the lower 70s.  Tonight expect mostly cloudy skies and a chance of a shower with lows in the lower 50s.  Monday some sun and clouds with a slight chance of a shower and highs in the lower 70s.  Monday night mostly cloudy with a slight chance showers and lows in the lower 50s.

Extended Forecast Summary:

Nice and warm on Tuesday with highs in the mid to upper 70s but much cooler by the end of the week with highs in the 50s.

Rain And Wind....

Short Term:

Current radar showing some rain moving through the area and more behind the activity we see right now.  Right now temperatures are in the lower 40s and should warm up to the lower to mid 50s.  The wind will also be a factor in some parts of the area with 20-30 mph winds above 2500 ft.  Those areas are currently under a wind advisory.

Clearing out....

Looks like nice weather from Sunday to Monday with partly to mostly clear skies.  Highs will be in the 40s and lows in the 20s.  

First System Of Snow For The Week....

As we go into Monday night expect a chance of rain and snow mix and then changing to all snow as we go through the night.  The chance continues on Tuesday morning and then mixing with rain again by the afternoon.  The chances right now seem low, but we will have to monitor this system as we go through the weekend.   This system could be dangerous even with light precipitation due to the cold temperatures with lows dropping into the upper 20s Monday night.  Remember keep it here at ETWeather Blog for the latest on this developing weather situation.

Cold Air Finally Showing Up....

Short Term:

Expect Temperatures tonight to be in the mid to upper 20s with mostly clear skies.  So as you go out in the morning expect to have to start you car and bundle up.

More Rain????

As we go into the week end expect the chances of precipitation to increase.  The best chances of rain appear to be late Friday night into Saturday.  Expect there to also be a increase in wind on Saturday as well.  Temperatures will be in the 50s for highs and 30s for lows.  

Colder Air and Another Snow Chance....

It does look like the colder air will stick around next week.  We also have some light precipitation expected to affect the area as a low pressure clips the area from the north.  As this happens we will see several chances of snow and or rain from Monday night to Thursday.  This will have to be monitored throughout the week and weekend as the forecast period gets closer.  Temperatures next week will be cold with highs in the 30s and lows in the 20s.