Showers And Thunderstorms Possible....

It does look like another day of showers and thunderstorms will be possible with main initiation occurring in the higher terrain.  The main threat today will be possibility of heavy rain with precipitable water values in the 1.5 to 2.0 inch range.

SimuAWIPS Precipitable Water at 3 PM EDT

Highs today will be hot with highs in the lower to mid 90s.  Tomorrow I expect there to be chances of showers and thunderstorms with highs in the lower 90s.  Better chances of storms will be possible going into Thursday and Friday as a frontal boundary moves into the area.  This front will not affect temperatures with high this weekend remaining in the lower 90s.

More Chances Of Storms....

Another day of showers and thunderstorms possible.  Most of the activity will begin in the higher terrain with isolated storms in the Valley.  

SimuAwips RAP 2 PM EDT simulated radar indicating mainly  Plateau and Mountain activity 

Temperatures across the area will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s.  Tuesday expect more isolated storms with highs in the lower 90s.  Increase chances of rain going into Thursday and Friday as a weak frontal boundary moves south into the region.  Temperatures going into the weekend will be in the lower 90s with more afternoon variety storms.

Showers And Thunderstorms Possible....

A warm day is on tap with showers and thunderstorms possible as we go into the afternoon.  It is likely that most of the storms will form in the higher terrain, but Valley areas will also see pop up storms.  Some showers have already developed across the Southern Valley and Plateau.

GRLevel 2 Base Reflectivity at 11:07 AM EDT

I expect temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s.  It does look like the trend of afternoon thunderstorms and temperatures generally in the upper 80s to lower 90s will continue most of this coming week.  This will be due to trough and ridge transitions throughout the week, as ridge moves in from the east then recedes by the end of the week to a trough.

Beginning With Rain....

Starting out with rain this morning across much of East Tennessee.  Most areas seeing light rain with a few pockets of heavier showers.

Radar at 7:20 AM EDT

I expect these showers and possibly a thunderstorm to plague the region most of today with moisture transport moving toward the region today.  Some of these showers and storms could be heavy at times with possibility of localized flooding.

SPC MesoAnalysis Precipitable Water for 7 AM EDT (arrow indicates axis of moisture)

Rain chances decrease for the weekend with mainly afternoon showers and thunderstorms as Atlantic ridge moves west.  Expect highs to return to the lower to mid 90s with lingering moisture will make for sticky conditions.

Update:
Chattanooga ended there 90 and above maximum temperature streak at 21 with yesterday's high of 79 degrees.

Rain To Start The Day....

Many parts of the region are seeing rain to start out the day with showers and possibly a few embedded thunderstorms moving through much of East Tennessee.

Radar at 7:34 AM EDT

It does look like showers and thunderstorms will be likely today with highs in the lower to mid 80s.  Again today many of these storms will produce heavy rains with precipitable water values around 1.5 to 1.8.  forecasts are indicating these values will be higher as we go into the afternoon.

SPC MesoAnalysis Precipitable Water at 7 AM EDT

So if you have outdoor plans today the weather could change rapidly.  Main threat today will be heavy rain and lightning.  Good chances of showers and thunderstorms will persist through the rest of the week.  It does look like this weekend high temperatures will return to the lower to mid 90s with afternoon thunderstorms possible.

More Chances Of Rain And Thunderstorms....

Today will be much like yesterday where some areas see more rain than others.  We started off the morning with areas across the central Valley receiving rain and thunderstorms.  Currently the storms have generally set up along the upper level divergence zone along the border of Tennessee and Kentucky/Virginia.

SPC MesoAnalysis radar and 300mb analysis

Another big story will be the possibility for heavy rain across parts of East Tennessee with precipitable water index in the 1.8 to 2.0 across Tennessee this morning.  Temperatures should be in the mid to upper 80s depending on storms and cloud cover.  It will continue to be sticky outside with moist air continuing to stream north from the gulf.  Good chances of showers and thunderstorms continue most of the week with best chances for Wednesday and Thursday as more upper level support moves into the region.  expect high temperatures to continue to be in the lower to mid 80s depending on storms and cloud cover.

HPC total precipitation for 8AM EDT Tuesday to 8AM EDT Friday

Showers And Thunderstorms Likely....

Today expect showers and thunderstorms to become likely as we go into the afternoon.  It will still be a warm day with highs in the lower 90s and heat indices in the mid 90s.  Hopefully the cloud cover will keep the temperatures down.  It does look like this frontal boundary in forecasted to become more quasi-stationary over and just south of the region for much of the week bring chances of showers and thunderstorms mainly in the afternoon.  If you have outdoor plans keep a eye to the skies for quickly changing conditions.  Also expect cooler temperatures by mid week with highs getting into the lower to mid 80s.

Changing Pattern....

Hope everyone had a safe and fun weekend.  Surface analysis this morning is indicating the frontal boundary that has been to the north has moved south almost into far North Kentucky.  This will become the main weather player going into the work week.  Today expect chances of showers and thunderstorms to be on the increase with highs in the lower to mid 90s.  Shower and thunderstorm chances increase greatly going into Monday and Tuesday with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s.  There will be chances of showers and thunderstorms through the week as the frontal boundary is forecasted to slow meander south.

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