Greater Chances Of Showers And Thunderstorms....

Forecast Discussion:

Well folks a busy and changing forecast has presented itself this morning.  I do expect a increase chance of showers and thunderstorms today with a approaching upper level disturbance that is producing a MCS across the Ohio Valley this morning.  The air mass across the area if forecasted to be moist and unstable.  This will give way to chances for damaging winds, heavy rain and hail.  This has prompted the Storm Prediction Center to put all of East Tennessee under a slight risk for Severe Storms.  If you have outdoor plans this afternoon please keep a eye to the sky as conditions could change rapidly.  Also be sure to follow us on Twitter or Facebook for updated warnings.  Highs today will be in the lower to mid 90s.

SPC Slight Risk is the area inside the green line updated at 8:40 AM EDT

Now moving forward into Friday and Saturday where the story will be the return of the heat with highs expected to be in the upper 90s with 100s possible is some spots.  These high temperatures coupled with the moist air mass will lead to high heat indices.  There will also be chances of showers and thunderstorms mainly in the higher terrain.  If you have plans for the weekend make sure you drink plenty of water and limit time outdoors.

Twister Data NAM 12Z/8AM forecast for surface temperatures for Saturday at 2 PM EDT

Then going into Sunday through Tuesday we have increase chances for rain with a frontal boundary proged to move south into the Tennessee Valley.  The exact timing of this system is still a little uncertain as models have been some what different.  GFS MOS data does indicate that temperatures will drop into the 80s with some much needed rain occurring across the area.  I will keep you updated on this as forecast becomes clearer on timing.

HPC forecasted Precipitation from Sunday at 8AM to Tuesday at 8AM

The Heat Continues....

Sorry for the lack of update this morning as it has been another busy weekend.  Hope all have stayed indoors today.  This marks another day in the 100s and this one was one for the record books.

Records For Today:

• Knoxville broke the record of 100 set back in 1952 with a high of 105 and this also broke the all-time record high of 104 set on July 12, 1930.
• Chattanooga broke the record of 103 set in 1952 with a high of 107 and this also broke the all-time record high of 106 set on July 28, 1952 and June 29, 2012.
• Tri-Cities broke the record of 95 set back in 1959 with a high of 103 and this also broke the all-time record high of 102 set on July 29, 1952 and June 29, 2012.

All the official recording stations in the area set all-time record highs today with the ridge firmly in place across the region.  This hot weather will be sticking around and the return of the moisture also.  The return of moisture also means the return of isolated thunderstorms mainly in the higher elevations.  Remember to take breaks and avoid the outdoors if possible.

The Heat Is On....

Well the temperature will begin to really heat up today as high pressure dominates the area.  I expect highs today in the mid to upper 90s for most locations.  I do expect this trend to continue with highs expected to get in the lower 100s for Friday and Saturday.  I do not expect any precipitation even into early next week with temperatures staying in the upper 90s.  Everyone that has plans outside this weekend should make sure you take frequent breaks, limit exposure to the sun, and drink plenty of water.


Heat Tips: 

• Take frequent breaks
• Drink plenty of water
• Limit time outdoors
• Keep pets indoors

Also for those who have problems breathing there is a Air Quality Alert for today code ORANGE for most of East Tennessee.

airnow.gov AQI Forecast for today

Heat Begins To Build In....

The heat will begin to build into the area today as high pressure dominates the surface. I expect clear skies and temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s.  The temperatures increase as we move into the weekend with parts of the region making it into the 100s.  This trend of 90s and 100s does not look to end anytime soon with long range models indicating zonal flow (meaning no troughs which help to produce precipitation and changes in temperature).  If you are going to be outside remember to drink plenty of water and limit time outside.

HPC Surface Analysis at 5:00 AM EDT

Heat Tips: 

• Take frequent breaks
• Drink plenty of water
• Limit time outdoors
• Keep pets indoors

Also for those who have problems breathing there is a Air Quality Alert for today code ORANGE for most of East Tennessee.

airnow.gov AQI Forecast for today 

Starting Over....

Today with temperatures in the lower to upper 80s for Knoxville and Tri-Cities they start there 90 or above count with Knoxville ending at 7 and Tri-Cities ending at 3.  The Chattanooga Site will make it to 7 today and I expect them to be 90 or above for a minimum of 5 more consecutive days.

Current Record Highs:

	Thursday	Friday	Saturday	Sunday
Knoxville	100/1952	101/1936	100/1952	100/1954
Chattanooga	104/1952	102/1936	103/1952	101/1954
Tri-Cities	96/1952	95/1952	95/1959	98/1959

Not As Cool

Well folks the temperatures this morning not quite as cool as expected with most areas staying the lower to mid 50s. This was due to some cloud cover across much of the area through the night. We might get cooler tonight with clear skies and lows expected to reach the mid 40s. Wonderful day for Thursday with sunny skies and mid 70s and then back to some showers and thunderstorms for your Friday. This same system will produce some severe weather in parts of the Midwest. Looks like clearing will come for the weekend with lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s and highs in the lower to mid 70s.

More Rain....

Looks like this rain is continuing to stick around the area with numerous showers and a few thunderstorms possible through the day. The best chances of rain will be today through Monday. Then as we go through the week our chances come down and we may begin to see some clearing. High temperatures will be the upper 70s to lower and mid 80 and lows in the mid to upper 60s.

Rain And Wind....

Short Term:

Current radar showing some rain moving through the area and more behind the activity we see right now.  Right now temperatures are in the lower 40s and should warm up to the lower to mid 50s.  The wind will also be a factor in some parts of the area with 20-30 mph winds above 2500 ft.  Those areas are currently under a wind advisory.

Clearing out....

Looks like nice weather from Sunday to Monday with partly to mostly clear skies.  Highs will be in the 40s and lows in the 20s.  

First System Of Snow For The Week....

As we go into Monday night expect a chance of rain and snow mix and then changing to all snow as we go through the night.  The chance continues on Tuesday morning and then mixing with rain again by the afternoon.  The chances right now seem low, but we will have to monitor this system as we go through the weekend.   This system could be dangerous even with light precipitation due to the cold temperatures with lows dropping into the upper 20s Monday night.  Remember keep it here at ETWeather Blog for the latest on this developing weather situation.