Early Storms....

Showers and thunderstorms have started off your day in parts of the area. Heaviest area of showers and thunderstorms remained in the Southern Valley with some more scattered activity for the Central Valley. Northeast Tennessee remains mostly dry this morning as expected. Temperatures are in the upper 60s to lower 70s across most areas this morning.

GRLevel 2 Base Reflectivity at 8:23 AM EDT

Rest of today will be clearing out with slight chances of afternoon storms highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Tomorrow expect slight chances of storms mainly on the higher terrain with highs in the lower 90s. Warm day for Thursday with storms chances increasing slightly still mainly higher terrain activity with highs in the lower to mid 90s. Increase chances of precipitation for Friday through the weekend with highs in the lower 90s.

Update....

After looking at the model data that came out this morning it does look like the MCS will begin moving into the area in the early morning hours between 2 AM and 5 AM EDT.  The same holds true as it did in my forecast this morning the best chances will be in the Southern Valley near Chattanooga with less chances in Northeast Tennessee toward Johnson City.  The Storm Prediction Center has also nudged slight risk south with far Southern Valley including Chattanooga still in the risk area.  I will continue to monitor as system develops.

Chances Of Storms On The Increase....

Most locations are in the upper 60s to lower 70s this morning  with a little bit of cloud cover in some locations.  The trough that has been affecting the weather over the past week will continue to be the dominate feature across the Eastern US.  Today I expect mostly dry day with some chances of storms across the higher terrain and Northeast Tennessee.  High temperatures will be in the lower 90s.  Overnight and tomorrow increase chances of showers and thunderstorms will be possible with MCS moving close to the region.  Best chances of storms look to be in Southern Valley with lower chances across Northeast Tennessee.  Models do have a hard time with these types of systems, so I will have to monitor for changes.  This has prompted a slight risk for severe storms for tomorrow across the area.

Day 2 Convective Outlook for 07/31/12 at 8 AM EDT to 08/01/12 at 8 AM EDT

For your Wednesday expect chances of storms mainly on the higher terrain.  Highs for the week should stay in the lower 90s.

Slight Chance Of Storms....

Starting off some what cooler across the area this morning with temperatures in the lower 70s across most areas. Frontal system that has been the focus for weather over the past several days is still to our north.

SimuAWIPS frontal analysis at 6:40 AM/Radar at 7:45 AM

There could be a slight chance of storms as boundary rolls through the area with highs in the lower 90s. Right now looking at a sunny day for Sunday with highs in the lower 90s. Slight chances of storms return Monday with highs staying in the 90s. Best chances of storms return for your Tuesday and Wednesday. Highs will stay in the lower 90s.

Storms Possible....

Well starting off mild with temperatures across the area in the upper 70s to lower 80s. The quasi-stationary frontal boundary that aided in the development of storms that caused all the wind damage from Connecticut down to Texas is still west of the Tennessee this morning.

SimuAWIPS Frontal Analysis 6:30 AM/Radar at 8:55 AM

I do expect as frontal boundary continues to approach the region some showers and thunderstorms will form out ahead of the main boundary. The question this morning is how much will the atmosphere be able to recover in order to get development across East Tennessee. Right now NAM, RAP, and WRF models are indicating storms moving into the Valley around 2 PM and the HRRR shows some activity at 2 PM with more through 5 PM.  Expecting marginal instability but weaker upper level support, so little in the way of severe weather today. Main threat with these storms will continue to be damaging winds with stronger storms. I will continue to monitor throughout the day for development. Tomorrow will be drier as weak boundary moves through the area with highs in the lower 90s. The biggest affect from the frontal boundary will be the drier nights with lows getting back into the upper 60s. Sunday another drier day with highs in the lower 90s. Chances of storms increase Monday through Wednesday with best chance right now Wednesday.

Another Hot One....

Staring off the morning with some fog across the higher terrain and Northeast Tennessee.  Temperatures across the region are generally in the upper 70s with the cool spot being the Tri-Cities in the lower 70s.

SimuAWIPS Visible Satellite/Surface Fronts  

Low chances of any storms today with highs in the mid to upper 90s across the region.  The main impact today will be the hot temperatures coupled with dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s.  This will allow heat indices in the 100s.  Showers and storms out ahead of impending cold front will be possible across the area in the early morning hours tomorrow.  The best chances of showers and thunderstorms will be tomorrow afternoon around 2 to 5 PM.

SimuAWIPS NAM 06Z Composite Radar for Friday 07/27/12 at 2 PM

Saturday afternoon cold front will finally pass through the area.  Some relief in temperatures expected with highs in the lower 90s.  Watching another complex of storms that develops across the upper plains early Saturday and is modeled to approach the region late Sunday.  The models sometimes have a hard time handling this, but the NAM model has been consistent in showing this system moving toward the region.

Isolated Storms....

Starting off the morning with some rain and storms across Northeast Tennessee.  The main area of rain has moved south with a few showers possibly moving into the area from Eastern Kentucky.

SimuAWIPS Radar at 8:55 AM

Most of East Tennessee is dry this morning but mild with temperatures in the upper 70s and the rain cooled spot Tri-Cities in the upper 60s. Expect a summer like setup today with storms firing up mainly across the higher terrain. Some of the storms could drift into the Valley with heavy rain being the main threat. The heat will also be a factor today with temperatures expected to get into the mid to upper 90s. These temperatures coupled with dewpoints in the lower 70 will make for high heat indices in the upper 90s to 100s. Make sure to take breaks when outside and drink plenty of fluids. Another similar day for Thursday with isolated storms possible and high in the mid to upper 90s. Again high heat indices possible as warm moist air moves north ahead of the cold front. Best chances of rain will be Friday with timing looking to be early afternoon right now. Clearing for the weekend with highs in the lower 90s.

Thunderstorms With Some Strong....

Most areas starting off in the mid to upper 70s with the cool spot being the Tri-Cities in the lower 70s.  The story today is we are monitoring a thunderstorm complex that has setup over the Ohio Valley this morning.

SimuAWIPS Radar 8:45 AM/Fronts 6:40 AM

This complex has the capability of producing damaging winds and heavy rain.  Currently the timing of this complex is at question with RAP model indicating later this afternoon and NAM model later tonight.

SimuAWIPS Left RAP at 6 PM and Right NAM at 11 PM

Models due conflict with these complexes sometimes and will need to see next run of the NAM coming out by early afternoon. Currently going to go with the RAP and expect showers and thunderstorms complex to come in later this afternoon.  It does look like storms are forming south so we could some storms earlier ahead of complex.

SimuAWIPS Radar at 9:05 AM

This system has prompted a Slight risk across the area with damaging winds being the main threat.

SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook

Tomorrow expect chances of afternoon thunderstorms with highs in the mid 90s.  Another warm day on tap for Thursday with highs in the mid to upper 90s.  It will be hot and sticky as dewpoints will be in the lower 70s.  Friday another good chance of storms as frontal boundary approaches the area.  Temperatures for the weekend make it back into the upper 80s to lower 90s.

Isolated Storms....

This morning we are starting off with partly to mostly cloudy skies with a few areas of fog.  Dominate feature is the upper level ridge aloft.

SimuAWIPS 500mb Height and Wind/Water Vapor Satellite

Today will be another day of possible storms mostly in the afternoon and higher terrain. Although hopefully it will be a bust like yesterday with main areas of storms in Eastern Kentucky and Southwest Virginia. The storms we do get will most likely produce heavy rains. I expect temperatures in the lower 90s depending on storms. Tomorrow chances of afternoon storms will exist with highs again in the lower 90s. The better chance of precipitation that was forecasted for Wednesday may not happen. This mainly due to frontal boundary staying farther north. It does look like a frontal boundary will move into the area by weeks end giving way to better chances of precipitation. The big story till then will be the increase in heat across the region as temperatures for Thursday are expected to get back into the mid to upper 90s. That coupled with high moisture will produce higher heat indices and make it feel much warmer.

Slight Chances Of Storms....

A few showers are affecting Northeast Tennessee this morning and will continue to move to the east out of the region.

SimuAWIPS Radar 7:45 AM EDT/Front 6:30 AM EDT

Today will be similar to yesterday with chances of pulse storms across the region. Mainly affecting the mountains with some making it to the Valley. Expect highs to be in the upper 80s to lower 90s depending on storms. For your work week expect continued chances of showers and thunderstorms. The better coverage of storms will be Tuesday and Wednesday as upper level trough begins to dig farther south.

SimuAWIPS 500mb heights/wind for Tuesday at 5 PM EDT

Front Finally South....

The frontal boundary has finally moved south of the area this morning as seen by surface analysis.

SimuAWIPS Surface Analysis 6:20 AM/IR Sat 7:05 AM

Along with frontal boundary moving south, the upper level trough over the east coast that has affect our weather will begin to flatten out allowing the upper level high to control our weather again.

SimuAWIPS 500mb height and wind for 7 AM to 7 PM

Today expect possible afternoon showers and storms mainly in the higher terrain with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s.  For tomorrow expect chances of storms once again mainly on the higher terrain with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s.  The main threat this week will be afternoon showers and thunderstorms along with possibility of MCS storms systems to move south toward East Tennessee.  Best chances still appear to be Wednesday.  Highs will continue to be in the lower 90s depending on cloud cover.

Stormy....

Surface analysis from HPC indicates weak frontal boundary still parked north of the area along the northern Kentucky border.

HPC Surface Analysis for 5 AM

As this front moves south expect more storms to fire out ahead of this boundary.  The big factor here will be how much can we recover after storms last night.  We still have left over showers and few embedded storms mainly along the Plateau and Southern Valley.

GRLevel 2 Base Reflectivity at 8:43 AM EDT

The main threat today will be heavy rains and strong wind.  I will continue to monitor changes as morning and afternoon goes on.  Saturday expect chances of afternoon showers and thunderstorms with highs in the upper 80s.  The forecast for Sunday does look drier, but will have to monitor as upper level high shifts east will see possibility of storms systems rotating around the high.  Expect temperatures to return to the lower 90s going into the work week.

More Showers And Thunderstorms....

Chances of showers and thunderstorms today with some upper level help swinging through the area.  These disturbances will be weak so expect slow moving activity again today.  Main impact will be heavy rain/flooding and lightning.  Once again with plenty of moisture in place precipitable water values are around 1.6 to 1.9 this morning.  Highs today will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s depending on cloud cover.

SPC MesoAnalysis Precipitable Water/Radar

Still looking at tomorrow for best chances of storms with some being strong late in the day on Friday.  The weak frontal boundary to the north coupled with short wave energy will be the focus for convection.  Main severe weather threat right now is forecasted to be north and west of most of the area, but would not rule a a few severe storms in East Tennessee.

SPC Day 2 Convective Outlook 8AM Friday to 8AM Saturday

Your weekend looks to be warm with more afternoon convection with higher terrain being the focal point.  Highs for the weekend will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s.  Chances of precipitation go down Sunday through Monday and increase by Wednesday.

Another Stormy Day....

Another stormy day with Southern Plateau and Valley starting off with showers and thunderstorms.  This has prompted a urban and small streams advisory for Rhea County.  I expect heavy rain to be main threat again today with precipitable water values starting off in the 1.5 to 2.0 inch range.

GRLevel 2 Base Reflectivity at 9:03 AM EDT

SPC MesoAnalysis Precipitable Water and Radar

Expect chances of showers and thunderstorms to continue today with highs in the lower 90s depending on cloud cover.  Remember greatest threat will be heavy rain and lightning.  I expect better chances for tomorrow and Friday as weak frontal boundary and low move toward the region.  I expect highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s depending on storms.  This weekend expect chances of afternoon storms with highs in the lower 90s.

Storms Have Developed....

Some storms have developed with the aid of deep moisture convergence, upper level disturbance and instability.  Follow on Facebook page or Twitter for latest information.

GRLevel 2 Base Reflectivity at 11:52 AM EDT

SPC MesoAnalysis Deep Moisture Convergence, 850 convergence/250 divergence, and Surface Based CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy)

Showers And Thunderstorms Possible....

It does look like another day of showers and thunderstorms will be possible with main initiation occurring in the higher terrain.  The main threat today will be possibility of heavy rain with precipitable water values in the 1.5 to 2.0 inch range.

SimuAWIPS Precipitable Water at 3 PM EDT

Highs today will be hot with highs in the lower to mid 90s.  Tomorrow I expect there to be chances of showers and thunderstorms with highs in the lower 90s.  Better chances of storms will be possible going into Thursday and Friday as a frontal boundary moves into the area.  This front will not affect temperatures with high this weekend remaining in the lower 90s.

More Chances Of Storms....

Another day of showers and thunderstorms possible.  Most of the activity will begin in the higher terrain with isolated storms in the Valley.  

SimuAwips RAP 2 PM EDT simulated radar indicating mainly  Plateau and Mountain activity 

Temperatures across the area will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s.  Tuesday expect more isolated storms with highs in the lower 90s.  Increase chances of rain going into Thursday and Friday as a weak frontal boundary moves south into the region.  Temperatures going into the weekend will be in the lower 90s with more afternoon variety storms.

Showers And Thunderstorms Possible....

A warm day is on tap with showers and thunderstorms possible as we go into the afternoon.  It is likely that most of the storms will form in the higher terrain, but Valley areas will also see pop up storms.  Some showers have already developed across the Southern Valley and Plateau.

GRLevel 2 Base Reflectivity at 11:07 AM EDT

I expect temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s.  It does look like the trend of afternoon thunderstorms and temperatures generally in the upper 80s to lower 90s will continue most of this coming week.  This will be due to trough and ridge transitions throughout the week, as ridge moves in from the east then recedes by the end of the week to a trough.

Beginning With Rain....

Starting out with rain this morning across much of East Tennessee.  Most areas seeing light rain with a few pockets of heavier showers.

Radar at 7:20 AM EDT

I expect these showers and possibly a thunderstorm to plague the region most of today with moisture transport moving toward the region today.  Some of these showers and storms could be heavy at times with possibility of localized flooding.

SPC MesoAnalysis Precipitable Water for 7 AM EDT (arrow indicates axis of moisture)

Rain chances decrease for the weekend with mainly afternoon showers and thunderstorms as Atlantic ridge moves west.  Expect highs to return to the lower to mid 90s with lingering moisture will make for sticky conditions.

Update:
Chattanooga ended there 90 and above maximum temperature streak at 21 with yesterday's high of 79 degrees.

Rain To Start The Day....

Many parts of the region are seeing rain to start out the day with showers and possibly a few embedded thunderstorms moving through much of East Tennessee.

Radar at 7:34 AM EDT

It does look like showers and thunderstorms will be likely today with highs in the lower to mid 80s.  Again today many of these storms will produce heavy rains with precipitable water values around 1.5 to 1.8.  forecasts are indicating these values will be higher as we go into the afternoon.

SPC MesoAnalysis Precipitable Water at 7 AM EDT

So if you have outdoor plans today the weather could change rapidly.  Main threat today will be heavy rain and lightning.  Good chances of showers and thunderstorms will persist through the rest of the week.  It does look like this weekend high temperatures will return to the lower to mid 90s with afternoon thunderstorms possible.

More Chances Of Rain And Thunderstorms....

Today will be much like yesterday where some areas see more rain than others.  We started off the morning with areas across the central Valley receiving rain and thunderstorms.  Currently the storms have generally set up along the upper level divergence zone along the border of Tennessee and Kentucky/Virginia.

SPC MesoAnalysis radar and 300mb analysis

Another big story will be the possibility for heavy rain across parts of East Tennessee with precipitable water index in the 1.8 to 2.0 across Tennessee this morning.  Temperatures should be in the mid to upper 80s depending on storms and cloud cover.  It will continue to be sticky outside with moist air continuing to stream north from the gulf.  Good chances of showers and thunderstorms continue most of the week with best chances for Wednesday and Thursday as more upper level support moves into the region.  expect high temperatures to continue to be in the lower to mid 80s depending on storms and cloud cover.

HPC total precipitation for 8AM EDT Tuesday to 8AM EDT Friday

Showers And Thunderstorms Likely....

Today expect showers and thunderstorms to become likely as we go into the afternoon.  It will still be a warm day with highs in the lower 90s and heat indices in the mid 90s.  Hopefully the cloud cover will keep the temperatures down.  It does look like this frontal boundary in forecasted to become more quasi-stationary over and just south of the region for much of the week bring chances of showers and thunderstorms mainly in the afternoon.  If you have outdoor plans keep a eye to the skies for quickly changing conditions.  Also expect cooler temperatures by mid week with highs getting into the lower to mid 80s.

Changing Pattern....

Hope everyone had a safe and fun weekend.  Surface analysis this morning is indicating the frontal boundary that has been to the north has moved south almost into far North Kentucky.  This will become the main weather player going into the work week.  Today expect chances of showers and thunderstorms to be on the increase with highs in the lower to mid 90s.  Shower and thunderstorm chances increase greatly going into Monday and Tuesday with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s.  There will be chances of showers and thunderstorms through the week as the frontal boundary is forecasted to slow meander south.

Remember for the latest updates and advisory information for East Tennessee follow me on Twitter or ETweather Facebook page.

Storms Stayed West....

We needed a break from the severe weather with storms staying west of the area. Highs today in the 90s in most locations with Chattanooga coming in at 100.

Chances Of Showers And Thunderstorms Again....

Well folks I hope many of you have power restored, or will soon with some reports of power still out in some parts of the region.  Numerous reports of wind damage across the area as storms slowly moved through the East Tennessee yesterday.

NWS Local Storm Reports wind reports in blue and hail in green

This morning we started off with some fog across the region.  I do expect there to be more showers and thunderstorms today.  These will be triggered by another upper level disturbance that will swing through the area.  Another hot one today with highs in the mid to upper 90s.  Saturday expect shower and thunderstorm chances mainly in the higher terrain with highs in the mid to upper 90s.  The big story here will be the high heat indices, so drink plenty of water and limit time outdoors.

The next big story will be the major change in the pattern across the Eastern US.  This will begin changing Sunday with highs expected to be in the upper 80s to lower 90s as a trough begins to setup over the Eastern US.  This also means chances of precipitation will increase early this next week as a frontal boundary begins to move south slowly across the area.  This will bring some much needed rain.  Also the temperatures will get back closer to normal for this time of year with highs in the mid to upper 80s depending on cloud cover.

HPC 48-HR Rainfall Totals for 8AM EDT Monday to 8AM EDT Wednesday

All Of East TN Under A Severe Thunderstorms Watch....

We have been tracking a System all day that is making it's way south in East Tennessee.  For more information and the latest watches and warnings please follow us on Twitter and Facebook.

Greater Chances Of Showers And Thunderstorms....

Forecast Discussion:

Well folks a busy and changing forecast has presented itself this morning.  I do expect a increase chance of showers and thunderstorms today with a approaching upper level disturbance that is producing a MCS across the Ohio Valley this morning.  The air mass across the area if forecasted to be moist and unstable.  This will give way to chances for damaging winds, heavy rain and hail.  This has prompted the Storm Prediction Center to put all of East Tennessee under a slight risk for Severe Storms.  If you have outdoor plans this afternoon please keep a eye to the sky as conditions could change rapidly.  Also be sure to follow us on Twitter or Facebook for updated warnings.  Highs today will be in the lower to mid 90s.

SPC Slight Risk is the area inside the green line updated at 8:40 AM EDT

Now moving forward into Friday and Saturday where the story will be the return of the heat with highs expected to be in the upper 90s with 100s possible is some spots.  These high temperatures coupled with the moist air mass will lead to high heat indices.  There will also be chances of showers and thunderstorms mainly in the higher terrain.  If you have plans for the weekend make sure you drink plenty of water and limit time outdoors.

Twister Data NAM 12Z/8AM forecast for surface temperatures for Saturday at 2 PM EDT

Then going into Sunday through Tuesday we have increase chances for rain with a frontal boundary proged to move south into the Tennessee Valley.  The exact timing of this system is still a little uncertain as models have been some what different.  GFS MOS data does indicate that temperatures will drop into the 80s with some much needed rain occurring across the area.  I will keep you updated on this as forecast becomes clearer on timing.

HPC forecasted Precipitation from Sunday at 8AM to Tuesday at 8AM

Chances Of Storms For Your 4th....

Well hope you are having a great holiday and thank you to our Military Veterans and Active Duty Military for your service.  Another day with the same problems a chance of afternoon thunderstorms and highs in the mid to upper 90s.  I do expect this to be much the same with showers and thunderstorms initiating in the higher terrain and drifting into the Valley.  The heat will begin cranking back up as we go into the rest of your work week into the weekend as upper level ridge moves slightly east again.  The trend for the end of the weekend into early next week is still on with ridge receding west allowing for cooler temperatures and better chances of precipitation.  Remember to follow me on Twitter or Facebook for the latest weather statements and weather information.

Fireworks Safety Tips:

• Obey local ordinances regulating the sale and use of fireworks.
• Use fireworks in a safe area away from dry fields, forests and buildings.
• Carefully follow label directions and always have adult supervision.
• Light one firework at a time and handle lighters safely.
• Never point or throw fireworks at people or animals.
• Keep water and garden tools nearby. Wet towels can be used to extinguish small flames.
• After the celebration ends, observe the area where fireworks were used to make sure everything is safe before leaving.

For More information visit www.burnsafetn.org

Shower and Thunderstorm Chances Continue....

Forecast Discussion:

The shower and thunderstorms chances continue today with best chances across the higher terrain and then drifting into some of the Valley locations.  I expect highs to be in the lower to mid 90s.  I do expect the trend of afternoon thunderstorms to exist through this week into the weekend.  It does look like temperatures will increase into the upper 90s this weekend as the ridge moves east again into East Tennessee.  These higher temperatures coupled with dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s will make for a hot and sticky weekend.  Models have indicated a trough digging south into the area early next week which could lower the temperatures a bit and give way to better chances of showers and thunderstorms.  I will monitor to forecasts and hope for some changes to the heat.  Remember to stay safe for the 4th and watch out for showers and thunderstorms to develop with little warning.

NCEP 06Z GFS 500mb Heights and Vorticity Forecast for Saturday 7/7/2012 and Monday 7/9/2012 at 21Z/5 PM EDT

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Some Relief....

Yesterday was another hot one with Knoxville and Chattanooga meeting the all time record high once again. Some relief came to the area last night in the form of showers and thunderstorms with 23 severe thunderstorms warnings issued across the region.  I hope you saw some rain with preliminary report out of Knoxville was 0.62 inches for the storm event.  I do expect the chances of afternoon showers and thunderstorms to be on the increase over the next several days as upper level disturbances move across the region.  Today will be another hot one with temperatures in the upper 90s to lower 100s.  Tuesday we begin to see the highs drop a bit with highs in the lower to mid 90s.

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More Storms Continue To Fire....

Upper Level disturbance moving across the area has fired off multiple showers and thunderstorms. Just a little relief.

Still Storms Lingering Across The Area....

There are still some storms lingering across the area with a severe thunderstorm warning in SW Sevier and SE Blount.

GRLevel 2 Base Reflectivity 10:36 PM EDT

Storms Across The Area....

There are a couple of storms that have developed across the area.  One has prompted a severe thunderstorm warning across parts of Morgan, Anderson, and Roane County.

GRLevel 2 Base Reflectivity at 6:05 PM EDT

Another Day of Records Possible....

Another day of records are expected today with highs getting into the lower 100s again.  I do expect showers and thunderstorms to increase as moisture returns to the region.  Most of the showers and storms will begin across the higher terrain.  Computer models do indicate that the area will begin to move back into the lower 90s going into this work week.  This will be nice compared to the 100+ highs we have been experiencing.  Stay cool out there and drink plenty of water.

Heat Advisory and Air Quality alert continues for most of East Tennessee today.